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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxywin 2:0
series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 2:0
IVYloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Bane
Bane
KuroKy · 14 games
57%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
KuroKy · 12 games
17%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 9 games
33%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Miracle- · 9 games
56%
Tusk
Tusk
GH · 9 games
33%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
MinD_ContRoL · 8 games
63%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 8 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
GH · 7 games
57%

IVY

Mars
Marsoften banned
TheBloodySky · 14 games
43%
Tiny
Tiny
Lowskill · 12 games
58%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
jmn- · 10 games
30%
Bane
Bane
jmn- · 9 games
22%
Medusa
Medusasignature
Lowskill · 9 games
67%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Max · 9 games
44%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
TheBloodySky · 9 games
22%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Lowskill · 8 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
458 picks · 630 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
441 picks · 431 bans
49%
Bane
Bane
440 picks · 268 bans
57%
Sand King
Sand King
409 picks · 559 bans
54%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
396 picks · 624 bans
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
387 picks · 469 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
350 picks · 547 bans
53%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
328 picks · 643 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 42%
Hero pool strength53% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total77% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:9
Nigma Galaxy 62%IVY 38%
The model gave 62% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 27:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightSumaiL
50% · 210 games54% · 155 games
MedusaLowskill
Medusa
Monkey King
Monkey KingMiracle-
47% · 306 games52% · 219 games
TinyMo13ei
Tiny
Beastmaster
BeastmasterMinD_ContRoL
59% · 148 games46% · 406 games
MarsMax
Mars
Snapfire
SnapfireGH
50% · 309 games44% · 125 games
PhoenixQupe
Phoenix
Omniknight
OmniknightKuroKy
51% · 49 games47% · 117 games
Pugnajmn-
Pugna
Game 2prediction correct42:29
Nigma Galaxy 61%IVY 39%
The model gave 61% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 43:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingMiracle-
57% · 124 games46% · 115 games
BloodseekerLowskill
Bloodseeker
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritSumaiL
55% · 58 games50% · 49 games
NecrophosMo13ei
Necrophos
Slardar
SlardarMinD_ContRoL
46% · 27 games50% · 139 games
Dragon KnightMax
Dragon Knight
Snapfire
SnapfireKuroKy
45% · 150 games41% · 97 games
Pugnajmn-
Pugna
Io
IoGH
55% · 119 games52% · 78 games
Skywrath MageQupe
Skywrath Mage
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 77%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2