Esports World Cup 2026 по Dota 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO5
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxywin 3:0series probability
95%5%
probability at match start · final 3:0
KKOloss 0:3
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nigma Galaxy
Hoodwink
OmaR · 40 games
Dazzle
GH · 28 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
GH · 26 games
Phoenixsignature
GH · 25 games
Shadow Shaman
OmaR · 25 games
Bristlebackoften banned
Davai · 24 games
Void Spirit
SumaiL · 24 games
Beastmasteroften banned
No!ob · 23 games
KO
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
601 picks · 371 bans
Phoenix
492 picks · 579 bans
Rubick
492 picks · 267 bans
Tiny
460 picks · 387 bans
Pangolier
404 picks · 558 bans
Puck
341 picks · 922 bans
Beastmaster
336 picks · 855 bans
Tusk
329 picks · 279 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 67%
Hero pool strength53% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total95% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Nigma Galaxy 95%KO 5%
The model gave 95% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy.
Game 2prediction correct55:23
Nigma Galaxy 95%KO 5%
The model gave 95% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 31:06.
Game 3prediction correct56:14
Nigma Galaxy 95%KO 5%
The model gave 95% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 30:18.
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 95%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 3:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3