DreamLeague Season 25. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxywin 2:0series probability
90%10%
probability at match start · final 2:0
KBKodiak Bearsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nigma Galaxy
Clockwerksignature
GH · 22 games
Phoenixoften banned
GH · 19 games
Primal Beastoften banned
No!ob · 19 games
Sand Kingsignature
SumaiL · 18 games
Snipersignature
SumaiL · 17 games
Marssignature
No!ob · 15 games
Pangolieroften banned
No!ob · 14 games
Batrideroften banned
OmaR · 13 games
Kodiak Bears
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
410 picks · 525 bans
Muerta
401 picks · 327 bans
Tusk
366 picks · 386 bans
Pangolier
350 picks · 573 bans
Lion
347 picks · 173 bans
Batrider
341 picks · 428 bans
Beastmaster
333 picks · 780 bans
Gyrocopter
322 picks · 477 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 67%
Hero pool strength57% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total90% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct42:16
Nigma Galaxy 90%Kodiak Bears 10%
The model gave 90% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 25:03.
Game 2prediction correct35:21
Nigma Galaxy 90%Kodiak Bears 10%
The model gave 90% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 27:28.
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 90%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2