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DreamLeague Division 2 Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxywin 2:0
series probability
93%7%
probability at match start · final 2:0
MODUSloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OmaR · 30 games
53%
Dazzle
Dazzle
GH · 28 games
50%
Muerta
Muerta
rincyq · 26 games
58%
Jakiro
Jakiro
GH · 25 games
28%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
OmaR · 23 games
57%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
SumaiL · 23 games
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
rincyq · 22 games
50%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
No!ob · 21 game
43%

MODUS

Muerta
Muerta
bottega · 4 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
mrls · 4 games
25%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 4 games
0%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
prblms · 4 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
elmo^^ · 3 games
33%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
xn丶e · 3 games
100%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
mrls · 3 games
67%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
elmo^^ · 3 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
607 picks · 557 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
527 picks · 410 bans
49%
Phoenix
Phoenix
469 picks · 529 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
465 picks · 413 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
462 picks · 235 bans
58%
Warlock
Warlock
398 picks · 245 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
389 picks · 901 bans
52%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
389 picks · 1021 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 38%
Hero pool strength50% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total93% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:20
Nigma Galaxy 79%MODUS 21%
The model gave 79% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 41:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kez
Kezrincyq
49% · 104 games54% · 150 games
Muertabottega
Muerta
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainNo!ob
51% · 296 games45% · 251 game
Pangolierelmo^^
Pangolier
Bristleback
BristlebackDavai
46% · 238 games41% · 83 games
Viperxn丶e
Viper
Zeus
ZeusGH
51% · 17 games56% · 246 games
Batridermrls
Batrider
Rubick
RubickOmaR
53% · 150 games54% · 75 games
Clockwerkprblms
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct31:19
Nigma Galaxy 80%MODUS 20%
The model gave 80% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 42:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackDavai
58% · 296 games50% · 297 games
Tinybottega
Tiny
Muerta
Muertarincyq
51% · 221 game41% · 295 games
Pangolierelmo^^
Pangolier
Primal Beast
Primal BeastNo!ob
55% · 161 game47% · 154 games
Sand Kingxn丶e
Sand King
Silencer
SilencerGH
53% · 152 games30% · 44 games
Techiesmrls
Techies
Rubick
RubickOmaR
57% · 174 games51% · 214 games
Phoenixprblms
Phoenix
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 93%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2