BetBoom Dacha Belgrade 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO5
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxyloss 1:3series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 1:3
MOUZwin 3:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nigma Galaxy
Brewmastersignature
Fbz · 17 games
Clockwerksignature
GH · 15 games
Phoenixsignature
GH · 12 games
Dark Willow
GH · 11 games
Morphlingsignature
Miracle- · 10 games
Rubick
SumaiL · 10 games
Disruptor
KuroKy · 9 games
Sand Kingsignature
SumaiL · 9 games
MOUZ
Shadow Demonsignature
bengan · 40 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Ulnit · 38 games
Witch Doctoroften banned
bengan · 37 games
Tinysignature
NARMAN · 35 games
Primal Beastsignature
Force · 33 games
Dark Seeroften banned
Force · 27 games
Crystal Maiden
bengan · 25 games
Dark Willow
NARMAN · 24 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
351 picks · 336 bans
Jakiro
350 picks · 259 bans
Hoodwink
347 picks · 401 bans
Pangolier
327 picks · 496 bans
Snapfire
301 picks · 264 bans
Sven
292 picks · 305 bans
Windranger
285 picks · 397 bans
Dragon Knight
283 picks · 455 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 42%
Hero pool strength53% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total67% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:15
Nigma Galaxy 59%MOUZ 41%
The model gave 59% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 43:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sand KingSumaiL
MedusaUlnit
WindrangerMiracle-
TimbersawForce
Centaur WarrunnerNo!ob
Storm SpiritSupream^
Dark WillowOmaR
RubickNARMAN
Elder TitanGH
Tuskbengan
Game 2prediction missed30:28
Nigma Galaxy 56%MOUZ 44%
The model gave 56% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by MOUZ in 33:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WindrangerMiracle-
MorphlingUlnit
PangolierNo!ob
PuckSupream^
Earth SpiritSumaiL
Sand KingForce
SnapfireOmaR
Dark WillowNARMAN
TuskGH
Omniknightbengan
Game 3prediction missed2:19
Nigma Galaxy 58%MOUZ 42%
The model gave 58% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by MOUZ in 25:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WeaverMiracle-
LunaUlnit
Shadow FiendSumaiL
Dragon KnightSupream^
Centaur WarrunnerNo!ob
Dark SeerForce
Naga SirenGH
Witch Doctorbengan
Dark WillowOmaR
TuskNARMAN
Game 4prediction missed7:26
Nigma Galaxy 57%MOUZ 43%
The model gave 57% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by MOUZ in 35:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaMiracle-
LunaUlnit
Sand KingSumaiL
TimbersawForce
KunkkaNo!ob
Storm SpiritSupream^
HoodwinkOmaR
Naga Sirenbengan
Elder TitanGH
MiranaNARMAN
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 67%
Series resultMOUZ 1:3
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 4