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FISSURE PLAYGROUND Belgrade 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxywin 2:0
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:0
MOUZloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
GH · 26 games
73%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
SumaiL · 18 games
67%
Phoenix
Phoenix
GH · 17 games
47%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
No!ob · 17 games
65%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
No!ob · 16 games
31%
Sniper
Snipersignature
SumaiL · 16 games
81%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
OmaR · 14 games
64%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Miracle- · 14 games
57%

MOUZ

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Ulnit · 24 games
42%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Force · 24 games
29%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
bengan · 24 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Supream^ · 23 games
48%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
NARMAN · 21 game
43%
Jakiro
Jakiro
bengan · 21 game
43%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Supream^ · 20 games
45%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Force · 20 games
45%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
481 picks · 658 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
434 picks · 505 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
377 picks · 552 bans
48%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
365 picks · 188 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
337 picks · 364 bans
51%
Luna
Luna
324 picks · 430 bans
55%
Invoker
Invoker
315 picks · 876 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
314 picks · 239 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 51%
Hero pool strength59% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total61% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:20
Nigma Galaxy 57%MOUZ 43%
The model gave 57% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 41:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Earthshaker
EarthshakerMiracle-
48% · 87 games52% · 135 games
MedusaNande
Medusa
Lina
LinaSumaiL
45% · 138 games45% · 315 games
PangolierSupream^
Pangolier
Doom
DoomNo!ob
54% · 363 games43% · 80 games
DawnbreakerTobi
Dawnbreaker
Elder Titan
Elder TitanGH
58% · 141 game51% · 284 games
Shadow DemonThiolicor
Shadow Demon
Lion
LionOmaR
55% · 313 games48% · 228 games
ClockwerkFly
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct48:17
Nigma Galaxy 56%MOUZ 44%
The model gave 56% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 29:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniper
SniperSumaiL
46% · 40 games44% · 77 games
DawnbreakerNande
Dawnbreaker
Tiny
TinyMiracle-
52% · 135 games46% · 147 games
LinaSupream^
Lina
Mars
MarsNo!ob
46% · 90 games51% · 161 game
EnigmaTobi
Enigma
Batrider
BatriderGH
46% · 163 games53% · 91 game
Nyx AssassinThiolicor
Nyx Assassin
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerOmaR
59% · 115 games56% · 67 games
Ogre MagiFly
Ogre Magi
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 61%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2