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FISSURE PLAYGROUND 2 — Dota 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxyloss 1:2
series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 1:2
MOUZwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Tusk
Tusksignature
GH · 31 game
74%
Puck
Puckoften banned
SumaiL · 27 games
59%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
GH · 25 games
56%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
No!ob · 21 game
48%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
OmaR · 20 games
50%
Doom
Doomoften banned
No!ob · 20 games
45%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Ghost · 20 games
55%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
Ghost · 19 games
47%

MOUZ

Snapfire
Snapfire
Seleri · 38 games
53%
Tusk
Tusksignature
yamich · 36 games
67%
Pudge
Pudgesignature
yamich · 30 games
60%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
MidOne · 29 games
66%
Juggernaut
Juggernautsignature
Crystallis · 27 games
74%
Mars
Marssignature
BOOM · 21 game
71%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Crystallis · 20 games
65%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
BOOM · 20 games
70%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
673 picks · 323 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
567 picks · 581 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
433 picks · 227 bans
52%
Puck
Puck
408 picks · 1161 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
383 picks · 646 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
361 picks · 257 bans
49%
Warlock
Warlock
354 picks · 157 bans
53%
Pugna
Pugna
353 picks · 400 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 65%
Hero pool strength55% MOUZ
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total68% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct3:23
Nigma Galaxy 40%MOUZ 60%
The model gave 60% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 21:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinGhost
47% · 240 games56% · 89 games
TidehunterBOOM
Tidehunter
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightSumaiL
50% · 390 games50% · 262 games
Ember SpiritLorenof
Ember Spirit
Axe
AxeMinD_ContRoL
56% · 92 games47% · 268 games
GyrocopterCrystallis
Gyrocopter
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterHellscream
55% · 117 games47% · 226 games
SnapfireSeleri
Snapfire
Pugna
PugnaTobi
46% · 286 games47% · 280 games
Clockwerkyamich
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction missed22:15
Nigma Galaxy 40%MOUZ 60%
The model gave 60% on MOUZ — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 41:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
MuertaSumaiL
45% · 161 game43% · 215 games
AbaddonCrystallis
Abaddon
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightGhost
51% · 237 games53% · 184 games
Centaur WarrunnerBOOM
Centaur Warrunner
Dark Seer
Dark SeerMinD_ContRoL
51% · 135 games48% · 94 games
Void SpiritLorenof
Void Spirit
Chen
ChenTobi
60% · 157 games52% · 216 games
SnapfireSeleri
Snapfire
Clockwerk
ClockwerkHellscream
48% · 188 games48% · 169 games
Bounty Hunteryamich
Bounty Hunter
Game 3prediction correct15:30
Nigma Galaxy 39%MOUZ 61%
The model gave 61% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 48:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerGhost
58% · 35 games49% · 43 games
HuskarCrystallis
Huskar
Timbersaw
TimbersawMinD_ContRoL
58% · 148 games43% · 145 games
Queen of PainLorenof
Queen of Pain
Muerta
MuertaSumaiL
56% · 214 games48% · 297 games
PangolierBOOM
Pangolier
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanTobi
55% · 188 games42% · 144 games
Hoodwinkyamich
Hoodwink
Windranger
WindrangerHellscream
43% · 99 games54% · 55 games
DazzleSeleri
Dazzle
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 68%
Series resultMOUZ 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3