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The International 2026. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxywin 2:0
series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Natus Vincereloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OmaR · 35 games
49%
Dazzle
Dazzle
GH · 28 games
50%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
GH · 26 games
77%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
OmaR · 25 games
56%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Davai · 24 games
46%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
GH · 23 games
65%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
No!ob · 22 games
55%
Puck
Puckoften banned
No!ob · 21 game
48%

Natus Vincere

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Daze · 24 games
58%
Warlock
Warlock
Riddys · 24 games
50%
Underlord
Underlordsignature
pma · 21 game
71%
Kez
Kezoften banned
Niku · 19 games
58%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
pma · 18 games
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Niku · 18 games
61%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Daze · 18 games
56%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Riddys · 16 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
644 picks · 447 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
597 picks · 337 bans
49%
Phoenix
Phoenix
458 picks · 544 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
455 picks · 658 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
411 picks · 369 bans
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
349 picks · 397 bans
47%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
348 picks · 510 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
333 picks · 1008 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 58%
Hero pool strength51% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head2 – 3
Model total56% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed21:15
Nigma Galaxy 43%Natus Vincere 57%
The model gave 57% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 38:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Necrophos
NecrophosSumaiL
50% · 42 games50% · 108 games
Templar Assassingotthejuice
Templar Assassin
Sniper
SniperLorenof
49% · 62 games53% · 80 games
LargoNiku
Largo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterDavai
46% · 354 games52% · 164 games
Batriderpma
Batrider
Io
IoGH
56% · 49 games52% · 295 games
HoodwinkDaze
Hoodwink
Axe
AxeOmaR
45% · 276 games51% · 136 games
BaneRiddys
Bane
Game 2prediction missed26:9
Nigma Galaxy 47%Natus Vincere 53%
The model gave 53% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 38:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniper
SniperLorenof
49% · 21 game71% · 52 games
Lone Druidgotthejuice
Lone Druid
Magnus
MagnusSumaiL
50% · 41 game54% · 139 games
KezNiku
Kez
Underlord
UnderlordDavai
47% · 155 games50% · 187 games
Centaur Warrunnerpma
Centaur Warrunner
Phoenix
PhoenixGH
44% · 202 games52% · 84 games
TechiesDaze
Techies
Clockwerk
ClockwerkOmaR
46% · 117 games45% · 74 games
GrimstrokeRiddys
Grimstroke
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 56%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2