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The International 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxyloss 1:2
series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Natus Vincere Juniorwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
No!ob · 31 game
74%
Tusk
Tusk
OmaR · 25 games
56%
Phoenix
Phoenix
GH · 23 games
39%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
OmaR · 21 game
38%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
GH · 21 game
62%
Magnus
Magnussignature
SumaiL · 21 game
67%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Ghost · 20 games
55%
Tiny
Tinysignature
OmaR · 20 games
65%

Natus Vincere Junior

Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Niku · 28 games
64%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
pma · 27 games
56%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Niku · 27 games
41%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Riddys · 25 games
68%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
gotthejuice · 21 game
57%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Riddys · 21 game
43%
Puck
Pucksignature
Niku · 21 game
71%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
Zayac · 20 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
561 picks · 616 bans
51%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
481 picks · 240 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
460 picks · 432 bans
48%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
393 picks · 816 bans
47%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
364 picks · 545 bans
51%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
357 picks · 818 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
353 picks · 320 bans
49%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
352 picks · 405 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 53%
Hero pool strength51% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total57% Natus Vincere Junior
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:34
Nigma Galaxy 46%Natus Vincere Junior 54%
The model gave 54% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 53:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeGhost
49% · 300 games45% · 28 games
Faceless Voidgotthejuice
Faceless Void
Puck
PuckSumaiL
51% · 191 game54% · 262 games
Bristlebackpma
Bristleback
Lycan
LycanNo!ob
45% · 107 games48% · 417 games
TinyNiku
Tiny
Undying
UndyingGH
46% · 56 games55% · 136 games
RubickZayac
Rubick
Batrider
BatriderOmaR
46% · 324 games55% · 135 games
WarlockRiddys
Warlock
Game 2prediction missed35:8
Nigma Galaxy 44%Natus Vincere Junior 56%
The model gave 56% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 34:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Death Prophet
Death ProphetSumaiL
50% · 36 games57% · 191 game
PuckNiku
Puck
Ursa
UrsaGhost
45% · 158 games55% · 64 games
Abaddongotthejuice
Abaddon
Mars
MarsNo!ob
44% · 114 games54% · 201 game
Dark Seerpma
Dark Seer
Io
IoGH
40% · 26 games56% · 103 games
RingmasterRiddys
Ringmaster
Tusk
TuskOmaR
50% · 249 games38% · 24 games
RikiZayac
Riki
Game 3prediction correct14:28
Nigma Galaxy 47%Natus Vincere Junior 53%
The model gave 53% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 31:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterGhost
47% · 261 game53% · 207 games
Ursagotthejuice
Ursa
Doom
DoomNo!ob
49% · 224 games51% · 447 games
TinyNiku
Tiny
Dark Seer
Dark SeerSumaiL
51% · 227 games52% · 32 games
Vengeful Spiritpma
Vengeful Spirit
Io
IoGH
43% · 25 games51% · 76 games
UndyingRiddys
Undying
Tusk
TuskOmaR
46% · 226 games54% · 201 game
MagnusZayac
Magnus
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere Junior · 57%
Series resultNatus Vincere Junior 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3