?
arrow_backBack to match
PGL Wallachia Season 4. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxywin 2:1
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Night Pulseloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
GH · 22 games
68%
Mars
Marssignature
No!ob · 21 game
67%
Sniper
Snipersignature
SumaiL · 19 games
79%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
SumaiL · 18 games
56%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
GH · 18 games
33%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
OmaR · 17 games
47%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
No!ob · 16 games
56%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
No!ob · 15 games
87%

Night Pulse

Jakiro
Jakiro
Kidaro · 14 games
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Worick · 12 games
50%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Davai · 12 games
67%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Kami · 12 games
75%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Worick · 10 games
40%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Kidaro · 9 games
44%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
dEsire · 9 games
33%
Lich
Lichsignature
Kidaro · 9 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
Phoenix
505 picks · 683 bans
54%
Muerta
Muerta
478 picks · 404 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
470 picks · 565 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
468 picks · 596 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
452 picks · 536 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
435 picks · 798 bans
56%
Magnus
Magnus
422 picks · 948 bans
58%
Lion
Lion
397 picks · 233 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 69%
Hero pool strength54% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total56% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct48:24
Nigma Galaxy 53%Night Pulse 47%
The model gave 53% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 53:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaSumaiL
45% · 158 games50% · 136 games
LifestealerKami
Lifestealer
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightGhost
50% · 386 games55% · 226 games
BristlebackDavai
Bristleback
Magnus
MagnusNo!ob
48% · 225 games54% · 470 games
TinyWorick
Tiny
Batrider
BatriderGH
47% · 405 games45% · 245 games
MuertadEsire
Muerta
Riki
RikiOmaR
49% · 38 games56% · 135 games
Elder TitanKidaro
Elder Titan
Game 2prediction missed35:27
Nigma Galaxy 51%Night Pulse 49%
The model gave 51% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Night Pulse in 46:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerGhost
47% · 87 games54% · 100 games
MedusaKami
Medusa
Lina
LinaSumaiL
48% · 144 games57% · 180 games
BristlebackDavai
Bristleback
Beastmaster
BeastmasterNo!ob
45% · 316 games48% · 345 games
PangolierWorick
Pangolier
Phoenix
PhoenixGH
46% · 386 games51% · 118 games
JakiroKidaro
Jakiro
Riki
RikiOmaR
58% · 40 games51% · 230 games
MuertadEsire
Muerta
Game 3prediction correct80:69
Nigma Galaxy 52%Night Pulse 48%
The model gave 52% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 1:57:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Earthshaker
EarthshakerSumaiL
51% · 117 games57% · 230 games
BristlebackDavai
Bristleback
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerNo!ob
48% · 193 games52% · 53 games
BloodseekerKami
Bloodseeker
Clockwerk
ClockwerkOmaR
48% · 395 games48% · 409 games
TinyWorick
Tiny
Phoenix
PhoenixGH
42% · 337 games55% · 272 games
MagnusdEsire
Magnus
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinGhost
52% · 149 games46% · 227 games
LichKidaro
Lich
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 56%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3