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FISSURE Universe: Episode 4. Закрытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxyloss 0:1
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Night Pulsewin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
GH · 24 games
71%
Mars
Marssignature
No!ob · 21 game
67%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
GH · 21 game
38%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
No!ob · 19 games
58%
Sniper
Snipersignature
SumaiL · 19 games
79%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
OmaR · 18 games
50%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
No!ob · 16 games
88%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
No!ob · 16 games
56%

Night Pulse

Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Kidaro · 15 games
60%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Worick · 12 games
50%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Davai · 12 games
67%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Kami · 12 games
75%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Worick · 11 games
45%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Worick · 11 games
45%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
dEsire · 10 games
40%
Lich
Lichsignature
Kidaro · 10 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
Phoenix
531 picks · 723 bans
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
491 picks · 571 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
485 picks · 611 bans
51%
Muerta
Muerta
480 picks · 409 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
473 picks · 575 bans
51%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
445 picks · 801 bans
56%
Magnus
Magnus
442 picks · 977 bans
58%
Lion
Lion
399 picks · 230 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 68%
Hero pool strength55% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total62% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed6:34
Nigma Galaxy 58%Night Pulse 42%
The model gave 58% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Night Pulse in 28:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeGhost
54% · 90 games46% · 86 games
SlarkKami
Slark
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritSumaiL
46% · 106 games51% · 228 games
Earth SpiritWorick
Earth Spirit
Bristleback
BristlebackNo!ob
56% · 174 games45% · 56 games
AbaddonDavai
Abaddon
Batrider
BatriderOmaR
50% · 196 games49% · 291 game
MuertadEsire
Muerta
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonGH
56% · 156 games46% · 61 game
WarlockKidaro
Warlock
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 62%
Series resultNight Pulse 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1