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The International 10. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxyloss 1:2
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 1:2
OGwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Phoenix
Phoenix
GH · 22 games
55%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 18 games
56%
Mars
Marssignature
MinD_ContRoL · 16 games
69%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Miracle- · 16 games
44%
Io
Iooften banned
GH · 15 games
40%
Lion
Lionsignature
KuroKy · 13 games
69%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Miracle- · 12 games
83%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
GH · 10 games
60%

OG

Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
Ceb · 9 games
67%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Saksa · 9 games
67%
Puck
Pucksignature
Topson · 9 games
67%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Saksa · 8 games
88%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Topson · 8 games
38%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Saksa · 8 games
50%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Ceb · 7 games
86%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
MidOne · 7 games
29%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
480 picks · 192 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
380 picks · 209 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
364 picks · 598 bans
50%
Puck
Puck
359 picks · 878 bans
49%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
334 picks · 310 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
325 picks · 247 bans
50%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
318 picks · 454 bans
57%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
297 picks · 409 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 55%
Hero pool strength52% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total56% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed15:33
Nigma Galaxy 54%OG 46%
The model gave 54% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by OG in 34:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaMiracle-
46% · 89 games52% · 112 games
LeshracSumaiL
Leshrac
Lifestealer
LifestealeriLTW
50% · 43 games47% · 109 games
AxeCeb
Axe
Mars
MarsMinD_ContRoL
53% · 168 games54% · 102 games
PangolierTopson
Pangolier
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernGH
50% · 56 games52% · 77 games
Dark WillowSaksa
Dark Willow
Hoodwink
HoodwinkKuroKy
45% · 48 games50% · 4 games
Chenn0tail
Chen
Game 2prediction correct37:34
Nigma Galaxy 52%OG 48%
The model gave 52% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 41:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaiLTW
46% · 59 games50% · 20 games
Chaos KnightSumaiL
Chaos Knight
Tiny
TinyMiracle-
52% · 156 games51% · 75 games
Dark SeerCeb
Dark Seer
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerMinD_ContRoL
49% · 106 games44% · 291 game
PuckTopson
Puck
Io
IoGH
60% · 52 games53% · 160 games
Ancient Apparitionn0tail
Ancient Apparition
Lion
LionKuroKy
53% · 298 games45% · 125 games
ClockwerkSaksa
Clockwerk
Game 3prediction missed15:32
Nigma Galaxy 54%OG 46%
The model gave 54% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by OG in 34:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinMiracle-
46% · 50 games55% · 70 games
MagnusSumaiL
Magnus
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetiLTW
51% · 46 games46% · 135 games
PangolierTopson
Pangolier
Tidehunter
TidehunterMinD_ContRoL
53% · 75 games56% · 115 games
BeastmasterCeb
Beastmaster
Lion
LionKuroKy
45% · 111 games43% · 83 games
HoodwinkSaksa
Hoodwink
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinGH
54% · 134 games57% · 13 games
Chenn0tail
Chen
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 56%
Series resultOG 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3