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PGL Wallachia Season 3. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxyloss 0:2
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 0:2
OGwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
GH · 24 games
75%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
GH · 21 game
38%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
No!ob · 20 games
55%
Sniper
Snipersignature
SumaiL · 20 games
85%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
SumaiL · 18 games
67%
Mars
Marssignature
No!ob · 17 games
71%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
No!ob · 15 games
33%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
OmaR · 14 games
57%

OG

Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Kaori · 25 games
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Ari · 24 games
38%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Ari · 23 games
61%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Wisper · 16 games
63%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Nine · 16 games
44%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Wisper · 16 games
63%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
bzm · 15 games
73%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Wisper · 15 games
53%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
462 picks · 374 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
421 picks · 538 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
376 picks · 484 bans
51%
Lion
Lion
375 picks · 198 bans
55%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
366 picks · 592 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
362 picks · 403 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
356 picks · 583 bans
45%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
340 picks · 857 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 40%
Hero pool strength54% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total58% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:42
Nigma Galaxy 55%OG 45%
The model gave 55% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by OG in 36:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniper
SniperSumaiL
58% · 109 games50% · 43 games
Spectre23savage
Spectre
Windranger
WindrangerMiracle-
47% · 197 games55% · 127 games
EnigmaCeb
Enigma
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerNo!ob
49% · 109 games48% · 361 game
PangolierNine
Pangolier
Muerta
MuertaOmaR
49% · 138 games49% · 259 games
EnchantressxNova
Enchantress
Clockwerk
ClockwerkGH
49% · 364 games44% · 127 games
MarciAri
Marci
Game 2prediction missed12:33
Nigma Galaxy 56%OG 44%
The model gave 56% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by OG in 33:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
SlarkMiracle-
51% · 59 games49% · 384 games
Dragon Knight23savage
Dragon Knight
Mars
MarsNo!ob
47% · 314 games51% · 235 games
Ember SpiritNine
Ember Spirit
Tiny
TinySumaiL
53% · 470 games52% · 392 games
Centaur WarrunnerCeb
Centaur Warrunner
Batrider
BatriderOmaR
46% · 397 games52% · 28 games
Bounty HunterAri
Bounty Hunter
Io
IoGH
51% · 87 games49% · 288 games
PhoenixxNova
Phoenix
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 58%
Series resultOG 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2