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BetBoom Dacha · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxywin 2:1
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:1
One Moveloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
GH · 15 games
53%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 14 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
KuroKy · 13 games
69%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 12 games
58%
Snapfire
Snapfire
MinD_ContRoL · 9 games
44%
Io
Iooften banned
GH · 8 games
38%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
SumaiL · 8 games
63%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
GH · 8 games
25%

One Move

Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Panto · 11 games
55%
Techies
Techiesoften banned
Gilgir · 11 games
27%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Panto · 10 games
80%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ainkrad · 10 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Ainkrad · 10 games
30%
Mirana
Mirana
Gilgir · 9 games
56%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Munkushi~ · 9 games
67%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
AfterLife · 9 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
621 picks · 676 bans
55%
Rubick
Rubick
476 picks · 288 bans
47%
Batrider
Batrider
429 picks · 890 bans
52%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
384 picks · 392 bans
49%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
381 picks · 804 bans
47%
Doom
Doom
379 picks · 859 bans
54%
Pugna
Pugna
353 picks · 416 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
350 picks · 916 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:24
Nigma Galaxy 51%One Move 49%
The model gave 51% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 55:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidYuma
52% · 175 games51% · 119 games
MedusaMunkushi~
Medusa
Underlord
UnderlordMinD_ContRoL
50% · 164 games46% · 349 games
Ember SpiritAinkrad
Ember Spirit
Io
IoGH
59% · 96 games50% · 214 games
TimbersawAfterLife
Timbersaw
Rubick
RubickKuroKy
43% · 684 games55% · 198 games
Keeper of the LightPanto
Keeper of the Light
45% · 239 games
SilencerXakoda
Silencer
Game 2prediction missed16:39
Nigma Galaxy 55%One Move 45%
The model gave 55% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by One Move in 47:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawMinD_ContRoL
52% · 254 games54% · 150 games
Faceless VoidMunkushi~
Faceless Void
Wraith King
Wraith KingYuma
56% · 76 games48% · 172 games
Queen of PainAinkrad
Queen of Pain
Batrider
BatriderGH
49% · 364 games49% · 253 games
DoomAfterLife
Doom
Silencer
SilencerKuroKy
51% · 249 games43% · 268 games
SnapfirePanto
Snapfire
49% · 100 games
LichXakoda
Lich
Game 3prediction correct33:13
Nigma Galaxy 55%One Move 45%
The model gave 55% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 30:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenYuma
58% · 153 games54% · 122 games
MedusaMunkushi~
Medusa
Beastmaster
BeastmasterMinD_ContRoL
50% · 403 games51% · 361 game
DoomAfterLife
Doom
Enchantress
EnchantressKuroKy
48% · 329 games46% · 145 games
Void SpiritAinkrad
Void Spirit
Disruptor
DisruptorGH
46% · 331 game49% · 405 games
MiranaPanto
Mirana
48% · 183 games
LichXakoda
Lich
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 56%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3