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FISSURE Universe: Episode 8. Play-In · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxywin 2:0
series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Pipsqueak+4loss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Mars
Marsoften banned
No!ob · 25 games
44%
Muerta
Muerta
SumaiL · 24 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OmaR · 21 game
57%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
SumaiL · 18 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
GH · 18 games
56%
Bane
Banesignature
OmaR · 17 games
76%
Puck
Puckoften banned
SumaiL · 17 games
53%
Pugna
Pugna
GH · 17 games
41%

Pipsqueak+4

Warlock
Warlock
Kidaro · 44 games
43%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Palantimos · 35 games
60%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Kidaro · 35 games
63%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
xn丶e · 31 game
48%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Nande · 31 game
45%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Copy · 31 game
48%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Ekki · 29 games
66%
Tusk
Tusk
Ekki · 29 games
55%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
552 picks · 837 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
516 picks · 370 bans
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
478 picks · 644 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
459 picks · 583 bans
55%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
393 picks · 766 bans
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
358 picks · 586 bans
49%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
345 picks · 547 bans
59%
Mars
Mars
342 picks · 483 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 57%
Hero pool strength52% Pipsqueak+4
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total78% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:14
Nigma Galaxy 67%Pipsqueak+4 33%
The model gave 67% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 41:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendrincyq
55% · 178 games50% · 155 games
UrsaDarkLord^
Ursa
Puck
PuckSumaiL
49% · 246 games53% · 66 games
BrewmasterPalantimos
Brewmaster
Underlord
UnderlordNo!ob
45% · 91 game39% · 177 games
Queen of PainCopy
Queen of Pain
Naga Siren
Naga SirenGH
59% · 123 games39% · 258 games
Warlockaik
Warlock
Mirana
MiranaOmaR
67% · 59 games52% · 41 game
Spirit BreakerEkki
Spirit Breaker
Game 2prediction correct40:19
Nigma Galaxy 63%Pipsqueak+4 37%
The model gave 63% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 35:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Void Spirit
Void SpiritSumaiL
51% · 294 games48% · 357 games
PuckCopy
Puck
Razor
RazorNo!ob
40% · 39 games51% · 150 games
TidehunterPalantimos
Tidehunter
Slark
Slarkrincyq
52% · 90 games52% · 123 games
Phantom AssassinDarkLord^
Phantom Assassin
Tiny
TinyOmaR
46% · 420 games50% · 139 games
HoodwinkEkki
Hoodwink
Dazzle
DazzleGH
55% · 143 games52% · 217 games
Batrideraik
Batrider
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 78%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2