PREMIER SERIES · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxyloss 1:2series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Pipsqueak+4win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nigma Galaxy
Hoodwink
OmaR · 25 games
Jakirooften banned
GH · 25 games
Dazzleoften banned
GH · 22 games
Shadow Shaman
OmaR · 21 game
Void Spirit
SumaiL · 21 game
Muerta
SumaiL · 18 games
Marsoften banned
No!ob · 17 games
Puckoften banned
SumaiL · 17 games
Pipsqueak+4
Jakirooften banned
aik · 41 game
Warlock
Kidaro · 36 games
Marsoften banned
Palantimos · 35 games
Tusk
Ekki · 33 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Palantimos · 31 game
Underlordsignature
Palantimos · 30 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Copy · 28 games
Hoodwink
Ekki · 26 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
678 picks · 828 bans
Tiny
565 picks · 557 bans
Tusk
499 picks · 419 bans
Warlock
468 picks · 329 bans
Shadow Demon
414 picks · 1140 bans
Ember Spirit
396 picks · 681 bans
Mars
396 picks · 613 bans
Shadow Fiend
392 picks · 1022 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 54%
Hero pool strength55% Pipsqueak+4
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total66% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:29
Nigma Galaxy 66%Pipsqueak+4 34%
The model gave 66% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 41:00.
Game 2prediction missed25:42
Nigma Galaxy 66%Pipsqueak+4 34%
The model gave 66% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 39:36.
Game 3prediction missed11:32
Nigma Galaxy 66%Pipsqueak+4 34%
The model gave 66% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 35:19.
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 66%
Series resultPipsqueak+4 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3