ESSENCE I · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxyloss 0:2series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 0:2
PlayTimewin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nigma Galaxy
Hoodwink
OmaR · 35 games
Dazzle
GH · 28 games
Bristlebackoften banned
No!ob · 24 games
Muertaoften banned
rincyq · 24 games
Shadow Shaman
OmaR · 23 games
Void Spirit
SumaiL · 22 games
Beastmasteroften banned
No!ob · 21 game
Jakiro
GH · 21 game
PlayTime
Tusk
DJ · 13 games
Phoenixoften banned
Kuku · 7 games
Puckoften banned
Armel · 7 games
Timbersawsignature
Gabbi · 7 games
Muertasignature
DJ · 6 games
Void Spiritsignature
Armel · 6 games
Crystal Maiden
Kuku · 5 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
JG · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
507 picks · 275 bans
Phoenix
481 picks · 563 bans
Jakiro
444 picks · 350 bans
Tiny
442 picks · 351 bans
Tusk
378 picks · 327 bans
Beastmaster
348 picks · 834 bans
Puck
343 picks · 841 bans
Rubick
329 picks · 175 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:39
Nigma Galaxy 62%PlayTime 38%
The model gave 62% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by PlayTime in 1:00:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmasterrincyq
KunkkaDarkMago
Death ProphetNo!ob
BatriderFrank
UnderlordDavai
KezWits
TechiesGH
RingmasterElmisho
HoodwinkOmaR
TuskScofield
Game 2prediction missed33:44
Nigma Galaxy 62%PlayTime 38%
The model gave 62% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by PlayTime in 48:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BeastmasterNo!ob
KezWits
Primal BeastDavai
MarsDarkMago
Windrangerrincyq
DoomFrank
Keeper of the LightGH
EnchantressElmisho
ClockwerkOmaR
HoodwinkScofield
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 70%
Series resultPlayTime 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2