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PREMIER SERIES · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxywin 2:1
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Power Rangersloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OmaR · 25 games
52%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
GH · 25 games
28%
Dazzle
Dazzleoften banned
GH · 22 games
55%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
OmaR · 21 game
52%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
SumaiL · 21 game
48%
Muerta
Muerta
SumaiL · 18 games
44%
Mars
Marsoften banned
No!ob · 17 games
24%
Puck
Puckoften banned
SumaiL · 17 games
41%

Power Rangers

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Immersion · 25 games
52%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
nicky`cool · 19 games
68%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Immersion · 18 games
56%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Alberkaaa · 17 games
71%
Luna
Lunasignature
nesfeer · 17 games
65%
Tiny
Tiny
nicky`cool · 16 games
50%
Mars
Marssignature
Alberkaaa · 14 games
71%
Tusk
Tusk
Immersion · 14 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
667 picks · 802 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
552 picks · 541 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
496 picks · 416 bans
49%
Warlock
Warlock
458 picks · 321 bans
47%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
410 picks · 1123 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
391 picks · 605 bans
48%
Puck
Puck
388 picks · 795 bans
52%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
386 picks · 1014 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 59%
Hero pool strength59% Power Rangers
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total62% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:37
Nigma Galaxy 55%Power Rangers 45%
The model gave 55% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Power Rangers in 37:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckNo!ob
50% · 292 games48% · 308 games
Bristlebacknesfeer
Bristleback
Monkey King
Monkey Kingrincyq
47% · 119 games53% · 313 games
Slardarnicky`cool
Slardar
Tidehunter
TidehunterDavai
44% · 167 games53% · 143 games
ViperAlberkaaa
Viper
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightGH
51% · 78 games57% · 108 games
RubickHduo
Rubick
Tusk
TuskOmaR
51% · 343 games47% · 127 games
LionImmersion
Lion
Game 2prediction correct39:28
Nigma Galaxy 53%Power Rangers 47%
The model gave 53% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 44:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
Muertarincyq
50% · 206 games51% · 192 games
Sand Kingnicky`cool
Sand King
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritNo!ob
47% · 364 games51% · 86 games
ViperAlberkaaa
Viper
Tidehunter
TidehunterDavai
48% · 221 game56% · 223 games
Monkey Kingnesfeer
Monkey King
Snapfire
SnapfireOmaR
54% · 278 games51% · 210 games
PhoenixHduo
Phoenix
Bane
BaneGH
47% · 162 games46% · 520 games
TuskImmersion
Tusk
Game 3prediction correct40:32
Nigma Galaxy 56%Power Rangers 44%
The model gave 56% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 48:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
Alchemistrincyq
46% · 34 games47% · 108 games
Keeper of the Lightnicky`cool
Keeper of the Light
Void Spirit
Void SpiritNo!ob
56% · 169 games44% · 131 game
DawnbreakerAlberkaaa
Dawnbreaker
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritDavai
52% · 304 games42% · 99 games
Weavernesfeer
Weaver
Batrider
BatriderOmaR
52% · 251 game55% · 57 games
RubickHduo
Rubick
Oracle
OracleGH
58% · 37 games46% · 400 games
TuskImmersion
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 62%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3