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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Западная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxywin 2:0
series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 2:0
PSG Questloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 8 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
GH · 7 games
29%
Rubick
Rubick
GH · 6 games
17%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
ATF · 6 games
33%
Disruptor
Disruptor
GH · 5 games
60%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
SumaiL · 5 games
60%
Razor
Razoroften banned
ATF · 5 games
80%
Snapfire
Snapfire
GH · 5 games
40%

PSG Quest

Rubick
Rubicksignature
OmaR · 27 games
74%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Kaori · 17 games
65%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Wuiter · 15 games
80%
Tiny
Tinysignature
No!ob · 14 games
64%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Kaori · 13 games
77%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
No!ob · 12 games
75%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
No!ob · 12 games
75%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Kaori · 12 games
58%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
800 picks · 563 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
579 picks · 398 bans
52%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
522 picks · 550 bans
56%
Tusk
Tusk
507 picks · 414 bans
47%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
468 picks · 757 bans
56%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
423 picks · 864 bans
52%
Snapfire
Snapfire
417 picks · 301 bans
46%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
365 picks · 874 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 70%
Hero pool strength62% PSG Quest
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% PSG Quest
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:18
Nigma Galaxy 42%PSG Quest 58%
The model gave 58% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 59:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingSumaiL
45% · 131 game47% · 141 game
Drow RangerTA2000
Drow Ranger
Pangolier
PangolierATF
43% · 259 games55% · 183 games
Storm SpiritNo!ob
Storm Spirit
Snapfire
SnapfireMinD_ContRoL
42% · 261 game64% · 32 games
Witch DoctorWuiter
Witch Doctor
Disruptor
DisruptorGH
54% · 112 games59% · 137 games
IoOmaR
Io
Silencer
SilencerKuroKy
46% · 84 games51% · 354 games
UndyingKaori
Undying
Game 2prediction missed27:20
Nigma Galaxy 46%PSG Quest 54%
The model gave 54% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 41:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenSumaiL
49% · 136 games57% · 229 games
Nature's ProphetTA2000
Nature's Prophet
Timbersaw
TimbersawATF
48% · 174 games47% · 167 games
ZeusNo!ob
Zeus
Enigma
EnigmaMinD_ContRoL
54% · 235 games53% · 189 games
Primal BeastWuiter
Primal Beast
Snapfire
SnapfireKuroKy
47% · 396 games46% · 248 games
HoodwinkOmaR
Hoodwink
Disruptor
DisruptorGH
53% · 186 games46% · 294 games
UndyingKaori
Undying
Model check result
Model favoritePSG Quest · 57%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2