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Riyadh Masters 2023 MENA Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxyloss 1:2
series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 1:2
PSG Questwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
ATF · 15 games
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
GH · 13 games
46%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 12 games
42%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
KuroKy · 11 games
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
KuroKy · 11 games
36%
Io
Iooften banned
GH · 9 games
44%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 9 games
44%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
GH · 9 games
22%

PSG Quest

Rubick
Rubicksignature
OmaR · 28 games
61%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Kaori · 22 games
68%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Kaori · 19 games
58%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Wuiter · 18 games
67%
Tiny
Tiny
No!ob · 16 games
56%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
TA2000 · 15 games
53%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
No!ob · 15 games
60%
Silencer
Silencer
Kaori · 14 games
43%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
701 picks · 494 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
565 picks · 504 bans
54%
Doom
Doom
564 picks · 1095 bans
54%
Techies
Techies
555 picks · 604 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
533 picks · 1218 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
464 picks · 1038 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
461 picks · 917 bans
54%
Enchantress
Enchantress
458 picks · 666 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 53%
Hero pool strength59% PSG Quest
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total71% PSG Quest
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:22
Nigma Galaxy 40%PSG Quest 60%
The model gave 60% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 43:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith KingYuma
51% · 90 games49% · 137 games
DoomATF
Doom
Timbersaw
TimbersawMinD_ContRoL
50% · 216 games53% · 69 games
MorphlingTA2000
Morphling
Lion
LionGH
45% · 64 games47% · 87 games
PuckNo!ob
Puck
Chen
ChenKuroKy
61% · 100 games49% · 82 games
DisruptorOmaR
Disruptor
43% · 95 games
UndyingKaori
Undying
Game 2prediction missed31:12
Nigma Galaxy 37%PSG Quest 63%
The model gave 63% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 34:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerYuma
45% · 172 games51% · 70 games
JuggernautTA2000
Juggernaut
Axe
AxeMinD_ContRoL
35% · 42 games53% · 123 games
TimbersawATF
Timbersaw
Pugna
PugnaGH
53% · 143 games57% · 61 game
Queen of PainNo!ob
Queen of Pain
Undying
UndyingKuroKy
43% · 272 games57% · 182 games
TechiesOmaR
Techies
57% · 193 games
DisruptorKaori
Disruptor
Game 3prediction correct19:35
Nigma Galaxy 36%PSG Quest 64%
The model gave 64% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 41:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeYuma
46% · 205 games50% · 127 games
Templar AssassinTA2000
Templar Assassin
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetMinD_ContRoL
53% · 264 games52% · 307 games
SnapfireNo!ob
Snapfire
Phoenix
PhoenixGH
47% · 156 games47% · 107 games
MarsATF
Mars
Enchantress
EnchantressKuroKy
52% · 328 games53% · 141 game
TechiesOmaR
Techies
50% · 271 game
ClockwerkKaori
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoritePSG Quest · 71%
Series resultPSG Quest 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3