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ESL One Birmingham 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxyloss 0:2
series probability
20%80%
probability at match start · final 0:2
PSG Questwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
KuroKy · 10 games
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
GH · 7 games
71%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
GH · 7 games
71%
Arc Warden
Arc Wardenoften banned
Miracle- · 6 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
rmN- · 6 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
MinD_ContRoL · 6 games
67%
Chen
Chensignature
KuroKy · 6 games
67%
Doom
Doomsignature
Ghost · 6 games
67%

PSG Quest

Earthshaker
Earthshaker
No!ob · 15 games
53%
Rubick
Rubick
OmaR · 14 games
43%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
TA2000 · 13 games
46%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Kaori · 10 games
60%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
No!ob · 10 games
50%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Kaori · 10 games
30%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
Kaori · 10 games
50%
Puck
Pucksignature
No!ob · 9 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
332 picks · 495 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
286 picks · 427 bans
49%
Lion
Lion
278 picks · 240 bans
52%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
269 picks · 186 bans
52%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
262 picks · 452 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
251 picks · 350 bans
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
249 picks · 726 bans
53%
Magnus
Magnus
245 picks · 395 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 67%
Hero pool strength53% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total80% PSG Quest
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:27
Nigma Galaxy 33%PSG Quest 67%
The model gave 67% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 35:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingMiracle-
52% · 177 games46% · 130 games
LunaTA2000
Luna
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainSumaiL
50% · 91 game52% · 85 games
LinaNo!ob
Lina
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerFbz
49% · 151 game54% · 129 games
MarsMalik
Mars
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonMatthew
53% · 118 games53% · 173 games
UndyingKaori
Undying
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritKuroKy
47% · 143 games46% · 163 games
LionOmaR
Lion
Game 2prediction correct8:30
Nigma Galaxy 34%PSG Quest 66%
The model gave 66% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 26:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kunkka
KunkkaSumaiL
50% · 136 games52% · 144 games
Templar AssassinTA2000
Templar Assassin
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidMiracle-
58% · 196 games50% · 171 game
Keeper of the LightNo!ob
Keeper of the Light
Magnus
MagnusFbz
51% · 192 games44% · 107 games
MarsMalik
Mars
Chen
ChenKuroKy
49% · 88 games52% · 162 games
Nature's ProphetKaori
Nature's Prophet
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonMatthew
42% · 139 games50% · 167 games
TinyOmaR
Tiny
Model check result
Model favoritePSG Quest · 80%
Series resultPSG Quest 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2