ESSENCE I · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxywin 2:0series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 2:0
REKONIXloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nigma Galaxy
Hoodwink
OmaR · 34 games
Dazzle
GH · 28 games
Bristlebackoften banned
No!ob · 24 games
Muertaoften banned
rincyq · 24 games
Shadow Shaman
OmaR · 23 games
Void Spirit
SumaiL · 22 games
Beastmasteroften banned
No!ob · 21 game
Jakiro
GH · 21 game
REKONIX
Disruptorsignature
Varizh · 20 games
Tiny
inYourdreaM · 18 games
Phoenixoften banned
Varizh · 14 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Fbz · 13 games
Ember Spiritsignature
inYourdreaM · 12 games
Windrangeroften banned
TraVins · 11 games
Muertasignature
dalul · 9 games
Axesignature
Fbz · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
512 picks · 418 bans
Hoodwink
480 picks · 254 bans
Phoenix
479 picks · 540 bans
Tiny
471 picks · 353 bans
Tusk
413 picks · 358 bans
Beastmaster
363 picks · 814 bans
Puck
355 picks · 866 bans
Warlock
346 picks · 203 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 31%
Hero pool strength53% REKONIX
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total75% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Nigma Galaxy 75%REKONIX 25%
The model gave 75% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy.
Game 2prediction correct33:28
Nigma Galaxy 64%REKONIX 36%
The model gave 64% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 50:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kunkkarincyq
TinyTraVins
PuckNo!ob
BeastmasterFbz
BatriderDavai
Storm SpiritinYourdreaM
TechiesGH
Windrangerdalul
RubickOmaR
Winter WyvernVarizh
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 75%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2