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Clavision Snow Ruyi Invitational · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxywin 2:1
series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Talon Esportsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
Fbz · 17 games
71%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
KuroKy · 14 games
50%
Mirana
Mirana
KuroKy · 11 games
55%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Fbz · 10 games
40%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Miracle- · 10 games
60%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Matthew · 10 games
50%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
Miracle- · 10 games
40%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
KuroKy · 9 games
44%

Talon Esports

Razor
Razoroften banned
CHYuan · 16 games
56%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
CHYuan · 14 games
71%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Ponyo · 13 games
62%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Akashi · 13 games
54%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Jhocam · 13 games
54%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Jhocam · 11 games
55%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
CHYuan · 11 games
55%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Ws · 11 games
55%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
399 picks · 397 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
398 picks · 867 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
380 picks · 288 bans
50%
Weaver
Weaver
373 picks · 780 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
339 picks · 531 bans
46%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
334 picks · 475 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
329 picks · 669 bans
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
316 picks · 376 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% Talon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total57% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:6
Nigma Galaxy 45%Talon Esports 55%
The model gave 55% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 26:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterFbz
40% · 129 games52% · 101 game
Troll WarlordAkashi
Troll Warlord
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightSumaiL
49% · 93 games50% · 126 games
RazorMikoto
Razor
Morphling
MorphlingGhost
42% · 181 game51% · 122 games
DoomWs
Doom
Monkey King
Monkey KingOneJey
53% · 85 games54% · 127 games
EnchantressPonyo
Enchantress
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernGH
60% · 39 games57% · 51 game
MarciJhocam
Marci
Game 2prediction correct4:41
Nigma Galaxy 46%Talon Esports 54%
The model gave 54% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 22:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dark Seer
Dark SeerFbz
52% · 181 game50% · 155 games
Troll WarlordAkashi
Troll Warlord
Lifestealer
LifestealerGhost
53% · 107 games51% · 162 games
TimbersawWs
Timbersaw
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightSumaiL
46% · 275 games58% · 205 games
Primal BeastMikoto
Primal Beast
Phoenix
PhoenixGH
46% · 284 games46% · 187 games
SnapfireJhocam
Snapfire
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerOneJey
50% · 75 games47% · 213 games
SvenPonyo
Sven
Game 3prediction missed32:12
Nigma Galaxy 47%Talon Esports 53%
The model gave 53% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 29:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaGhost
42% · 115 games56% · 229 games
SvenAkashi
Sven
Sand King
Sand KingSumaiL
43% · 66 games47% · 352 games
PangolierMikoto
Pangolier
Primal Beast
Primal BeastFbz
50% · 352 games54% · 159 games
TimbersawWs
Timbersaw
Phoenix
PhoenixGH
48% · 252 games58% · 213 games
Crystal MaidenPonyo
Crystal Maiden
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeOneJey
48% · 247 games52% · 79 games
MiranaJhocam
Mirana
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 57%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3