?
arrow_backBack to match
ESL One Malaysia 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxyloss 1:1
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Team Liquidloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Tiny
Tinysignature
KuroKy · 13 games
62%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
GH · 12 games
58%
Tusk
Tusk
GH · 12 games
58%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 11 games
36%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Miracle- · 11 games
82%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 9 games
56%
Io
Iosignature
GH · 9 games
67%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
KuroKy · 9 games
33%

Team Liquid

Tiny
Tiny
miCKe · 21 game
33%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
iNSaNiA · 15 games
53%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Boxi · 14 games
57%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
zai · 13 games
54%
Lone Druid
Lone Druidoften banned
MATUMBAMAN · 13 games
54%
Razor
Razorsignature
zai · 13 games
69%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
iNSaNiA · 12 games
33%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
MATUMBAMAN · 11 games
73%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
726 picks · 548 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
515 picks · 1029 bans
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
450 picks · 574 bans
45%
Marci
Marci
428 picks · 761 bans
52%
Snapfire
Snapfire
367 picks · 194 bans
50%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
355 picks · 384 bans
55%
Zeus
Zeus
318 picks · 363 bans
47%
Razor
Razor
313 picks · 617 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 35%
Hero pool strength53% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total60% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed13:44
Nigma Galaxy 59%Team Liquid 41%
The model gave 59% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 36:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackDreamocel
55% · 82 games48% · 364 games
TinymiCKe
Tiny
Puck
PuckSumaiL
50% · 347 games55% · 196 games
Death Prophetzai
Death Prophet
Visage
VisageMinD_ContRoL
60% · 115 games40% · 113 games
Night StalkerMATUMBAMAN
Night Stalker
Snapfire
SnapfireKuroKy
46% · 300 games47% · 129 games
Keeper of the LightiNSaNiA
Keeper of the Light
Tusk
TuskGH
59% · 122 games37% · 164 games
Skywrath MageBoxi
Skywrath Mage
Game 2prediction correct38:29
Nigma Galaxy 58%Team Liquid 42%
The model gave 58% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 41:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidDreamocel
46% · 105 games53% · 55 games
UrsaMATUMBAMAN
Ursa
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightSumaiL
48% · 165 games51% · 80 games
Timbersawzai
Timbersaw
Axe
AxeMinD_ContRoL
47% · 13 games50% · 79 games
BatridermiCKe
Batrider
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernGH
49% · 196 games47% · 275 games
TinyBoxi
Tiny
Chen
ChenKuroKy
62% · 88 games47% · 78 games
DazzleiNSaNiA
Dazzle
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 60%
Accuracy by game1 of 2