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FISSURE Universe: Episode 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxyloss 1:2
series probability
24%76%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Liquidwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Tusk
Tusksignature
GH · 34 games
68%
Puck
Pucksignature
SumaiL · 25 games
68%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
GH · 23 games
61%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
No!ob · 21 game
38%
Doom
Doomoften banned
No!ob · 20 games
45%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
Ghost · 20 games
45%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Ghost · 20 games
55%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
OmaR · 17 games
53%

Team Liquid

Tiny
Tiny
miCKe · 24 games
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Boxi · 21 game
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 21 game
71%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Boxi · 21 game
38%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Nisha · 20 games
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
SabeRLight- · 19 games
37%
Windranger
Windranger
Boxi · 19 games
53%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
miCKe · 18 games
72%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
514 picks · 265 bans
56%
Disruptor
Disruptor
481 picks · 483 bans
54%
Puck
Puck
363 picks · 989 bans
53%
Pugna
Pugna
327 picks · 376 bans
53%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
300 picks · 493 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
300 picks · 514 bans
54%
Warlock
Warlock
300 picks · 146 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
295 picks · 225 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 47%
Hero pool strength51% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head1 – 8
Model total76% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:33
Nigma Galaxy 37%Team Liquid 63%
The model gave 63% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 37:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone Druid
Lone DruidGhost
little data64% · 11 games
JuggernautmiCKe
Juggernaut
Muerta
MuertaSumaiL
57% · 144 games49% · 223 games
PuckNisha
Puck
Mars
MarsNo!ob
54% · 167 games28% · 34 games
BrewmasterAce
Brewmaster
Enchantress
EnchantressTobi
51% · 108 games52% · 148 games
SnapfiretOfu
Snapfire
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageOmaR
43% · 27 games50% · 30 games
PudgeBoxi
Pudge
Game 2prediction missed35:11
Nigma Galaxy 36%Team Liquid 64%
The model gave 64% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 27:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainSumaiL
39% · 202 games46% · 384 games
Storm SpiritNisha
Storm Spirit
Ursa
UrsaGhost
58% · 161 gamelittle data
KezmiCKe
Kez
Beastmaster
BeastmasterNo!ob
54% · 323 games53% · 179 games
MarciAce
Marci
Naga Siren
Naga SirenTobi
53% · 124 games50% · 256 games
SnapfireBoxi
Snapfire
Batrider
BatriderOmaR
51% · 264 games47% · 255 games
WarlocktOfu
Warlock
Game 3prediction correct19:38
Nigma Galaxy 36%Team Liquid 64%
The model gave 64% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 36:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingGhost
44% · 144 games57% · 19 games
JuggernautmiCKe
Juggernaut
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetSumaiL
50% · 146 games52% · 118 games
Void SpiritNisha
Void Spirit
Axe
AxeNo!ob
45% · 59 games53% · 317 games
BeastmasterAce
Beastmaster
Enchantress
EnchantressTobi
53% · 141 game45% · 243 games
HoodwinktOfu
Hoodwink
Snapfire
SnapfireOmaR
49% · 226 games62% · 19 games
Spirit BreakerBoxi
Spirit Breaker
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 76%
Series resultTeam Liquid 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3