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DreamLeague Division 2 Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxywin 2:0
series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Lynxloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OmaR · 30 games
53%
Dazzle
Dazzleoften banned
GH · 28 games
50%
Muerta
Muerta
rincyq · 26 games
58%
Jakiro
Jakiro
GH · 25 games
28%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
OmaR · 23 games
57%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
SumaiL · 23 games
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
rincyq · 22 games
50%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
No!ob · 21 game
43%

Team Lynx

Underlord
Underlordsignature
VladikTheHtiviy · 25 games
64%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 24 games
58%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
7jesu · 20 games
65%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
mellojul · 20 games
60%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
mellojul · 20 games
65%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
mellojul · 19 games
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
QBFY · 18 games
72%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
QBFY · 18 games
61%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
612 picks · 571 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
521 picks · 415 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
468 picks · 411 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
459 picks · 523 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
452 picks · 229 bans
57%
Warlock
Warlock
401 picks · 251 bans
49%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
390 picks · 1036 bans
56%
Puck
Puck
387 picks · 899 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 68%
Hero pool strength56% Team Lynx
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total70% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Nigma Galaxy 70%Team Lynx 30%
The model gave 70% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy.
Game 2prediction correct
Nigma Galaxy 70%Team Lynx 30%
The model gave 70% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy.
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 70%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2