ESL One Bangkok 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxywin 2:0series probability
85%15%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TMTeam Mansafloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nigma Galaxy
Clockwerksignature
GH · 24 games
Dark Willow
GH · 19 games
Phoenixsignature
GH · 18 games
Sand Kingsignature
SumaiL · 18 games
Primal Beastoften banned
No!ob · 14 games
Brewmastersignature
Fbz · 13 games
Tuskoften banned
GH · 13 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Miracle- · 12 games
Team Mansaf
Batrider
islA · 1 game
Crystal Maiden
Nagato · 1 game
Elder Titan
Nagato · 1 game
Nyx Assassinoften banned
islA · 1 game
Pugna
Nagato · 1 game
Shadow Demonoften banned
islA · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
458 picks · 614 bans
Clockwerk
392 picks · 428 bans
Pangolier
337 picks · 475 bans
Luna
334 picks · 417 bans
Enchantress
313 picks · 603 bans
Dark Willow
309 picks · 166 bans
Dragon Knight
289 picks · 353 bans
Sand King
273 picks · 805 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 71%
Hero pool strength52% Team Mansaf
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total85% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:15
Nigma Galaxy 69%Team Mansaf 31%
The model gave 69% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 28:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterMiracle-
MuertaislA
Monkey KingSumaiL
Elder TitanNagato
DoomNo!ob
LionOmaR
PugnaGH
Game 2prediction correct26:9
Nigma Galaxy 71%Team Mansaf 29%
The model gave 71% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 29:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow FiendMiracle-
MarciislA
DoomNo!ob
Crystal MaidenNagato
Monkey KingSumaiL
EnchantressGH
MuertaOmaR
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 85%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2