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OGA Dota PIT EU/CIS Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxyloss 0:2
series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Secretwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Luna
Lunaoften banned
iLTW · 9 games
44%
Io
Iooften banned
GH · 7 games
43%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
KuroKy · 7 games
43%
Mars
Marsoften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 6 games
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
iLTW · 6 games
67%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Miracle- · 5 games
20%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Miracle- · 5 games
60%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 5 games
40%

Team Secret

Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
YapzOr · 8 games
88%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Puppey · 7 games
71%
Magnus
Magnussignature
zai · 7 games
71%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
YapzOr · 7 games
71%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Nisha · 6 games
33%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magisignature
Puppey · 6 games
67%
Puck
Pucksignature
Nisha · 6 games
67%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Puppey · 5 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
358 picks · 522 bans
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
317 picks · 186 bans
47%
Bane
Bane
309 picks · 247 bans
58%
Weaver
Weaver
298 picks · 669 bans
55%
Monkey King
Monkey King
260 picks · 746 bans
58%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
248 picks · 399 bans
46%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
230 picks · 312 bans
57%
Disruptor
Disruptor
228 picks · 149 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 55%
Hero pool strength58% Team Secret
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total69% Team Secret
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:40
Nigma Galaxy 38%Team Secret 62%
The model gave 62% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 39:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangeriLTW
47% · 52 games51% · 101 game
Phantom LancerNisha
Phantom Lancer
Invoker
InvokerMiracle-
52% · 172 games50% · 315 games
Void SpiritSumaiL
Void Spirit
Mars
MarsMinD_ContRoL
42% · 368 games52% · 67 games
Outworld Destroyericeiceice
Outworld Destroyer
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetKuroKy
55% · 97 games49% · 162 games
EnchantressPuppey
Enchantress
Tusk
TuskGH
53% · 162 games50% · 206 games
Nyx AssassinYapzOr
Nyx Assassin
Game 2prediction correct29:39
Nigma Galaxy 39%Team Secret 61%
The model gave 61% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 1:04:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangeriLTW
35% · 29 games38% · 63 games
Queen of PainSumaiL
Queen of Pain
Lina
LinaMiracle-
46% · 118 games53% · 95 games
Troll WarlordNisha
Troll Warlord
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerMinD_ContRoL
54% · 52 games55% · 75 games
Outworld Destroyericeiceice
Outworld Destroyer
Rubick
RubickGH
51% · 118 games57% · 90 games
Treant ProtectorPuppey
Treant Protector
Snapfire
SnapfireKuroKy
52% · 142 games50% · 136 games
Dark WillowYapzOr
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Secret · 69%
Series resultTeam Secret 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2