PGL Wallachia Season 4. Закрытые квалификации · BO5
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxywin 3:1series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 3:1
Team Secretloss 1:3The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nigma Galaxy
Clockwerksignature
GH · 25 games
Phoenixoften banned
GH · 23 games
Batrideroften banned
OmaR · 21 game
Marssignature
No!ob · 21 game
Magnussignature
SumaiL · 20 games
Snipersignature
SumaiL · 19 games
Bristlebacksignature
No!ob · 17 games
Lionsignature
OmaR · 17 games
Team Secret
Pangolieroften banned
Ainkrad · 15 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Kyzko · 14 games
Bristlebacksignature
MikSa` · 11 games
Batrideroften banned
Puppey · 10 games
Dragon Knightsignature
423 · 10 games
Lionsignature
Thiolicor · 10 games
Bounty Hunteroften banned
Kyzko · 9 games
Chensignature
Puppey · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
544 picks · 760 bans
Clockwerk
509 picks · 581 bans
Batrider
501 picks · 621 bans
Tiny
496 picks · 585 bans
Muerta
489 picks · 414 bans
Gyrocopter
455 picks · 806 bans
Magnus
453 picks · 996 bans
Pangolier
407 picks · 621 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 47%
Hero pool strength53% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total62% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed42:33
Nigma Galaxy 55%Team Secret 45%
The model gave 55% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Team Secret in 57:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PuckSumaiL
BristlebackParker
AbaddonGhost
Templar AssassinSupream^
TimbersawNo!ob
TerrorbladeMikSa`
PhoenixGH
MuertaThiolicor
HoodwinkOmaR
ClockwerkPuppey
Game 2prediction correct41:10
Nigma Galaxy 56%Team Secret 44%
The model gave 56% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 32:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BloodseekerGhost
Phantom AssassinParker
Ember SpiritSumaiL
PuckSupream^
DawnbreakerNo!ob
TimbersawMikSa`
WarlockGH
Elder TitanPuppey
TuskOmaR
Bounty HunterThiolicor
Game 3prediction correct30:16
Nigma Galaxy 56%Team Secret 44%
The model gave 56% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 28:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingGhost
TerrorbladeParker
DoomNo!ob
Templar AssassinSupream^
InvokerSumaiL
DawnbreakerMikSa`
WarlockGH
ClockwerkPuppey
BatriderOmaR
TuskThiolicor
Game 4prediction correct23:6
Nigma Galaxy 59%Team Secret 41%
The model gave 59% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 21:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone DruidGhost
MorphlingParker
SniperSumaiL
Centaur WarrunnerMikSa`
BristlebackNo!ob
Ember SpiritSupream^
PhoenixGH
MuertaThiolicor
RikiOmaR
WarlockPuppey
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 62%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 3:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 4