Riyadh Masters 2023 MENA Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxyloss 1:2series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Secret MEwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nigma Galaxy
Timbersawoften banned
ATF · 16 games
Disruptor
GH · 14 games
Enchantressoften banned
KuroKy · 13 games
Beastmasteroften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 12 games
Snapfire
KuroKy · 11 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 10 games
Iooften banned
GH · 9 games
Shadow Demon
GH · 9 games
Team Secret ME
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
696 picks · 486 bans
Techies
566 picks · 613 bans
Doom
565 picks · 1098 bans
Disruptor
557 picks · 502 bans
Beastmaster
532 picks · 1218 bans
Ember Spirit
466 picks · 1035 bans
Enchantress
459 picks · 671 bans
Pangolier
457 picks · 914 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% Team Secret ME
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total69% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:25
Nigma Galaxy 69%Team Secret ME 31%
The model gave 69% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 40:20.
Game 2prediction missed3:38
Nigma Galaxy 69%Team Secret ME 31%
The model gave 69% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Team Secret ME in 38:23.
Game 3prediction missed
Nigma Galaxy 69%Team Secret ME 31%
The model gave 69% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Team Secret ME.
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 69%
Series resultTeam Secret ME 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3