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ESL One Malaysia 2022 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxyloss 0:2
series probability
27%73%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Thunder Awakenwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
SumaiL · 14 games
57%
Tusk
Tusk
GH · 14 games
57%
Tiny
Tinysignature
KuroKy · 13 games
62%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 11 games
36%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Miracle- · 11 games
82%
Io
Iosignature
GH · 10 games
70%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 9 games
56%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
KuroKy · 9 games
33%

Thunder Awaken

Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Matthew · 30 games
67%
Tiny
Tinysignature
DarkMago · 27 games
74%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magisignature
Panda · 23 games
70%
Mars
Marssignature
DarkMago · 22 games
68%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Panda · 19 games
68%
Weaver
Weaversignature
Sacred · 18 games
83%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
DarkMago · 15 games
80%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Pakazs · 15 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
738 picks · 571 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
526 picks · 1061 bans
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
465 picks · 610 bans
45%
Marci
Marci
432 picks · 773 bans
52%
Snapfire
Snapfire
367 picks · 195 bans
49%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
366 picks · 404 bans
55%
Zeus
Zeus
324 picks · 372 bans
46%
Razor
Razor
322 picks · 629 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 47%
Hero pool strength57% Thunder Awaken
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% Thunder Awaken
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:36
Nigma Galaxy 36%Thunder Awaken 64%
The model gave 64% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 36:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingDreamocel
43% · 155 games57% · 221 game
Monkey KingPakazs
Monkey King
Pangolier
PangolierSumaiL
50% · 348 games49% · 378 games
MarsDarkMago
Mars
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerMinD_ContRoL
43% · 248 games53% · 145 games
TimbersawSacred
Timbersaw
Rubick
RubickGH
50% · 214 games51% · 286 games
SnapfireMatthew
Snapfire
Enchantress
EnchantressKuroKy
50% · 237 games53% · 172 games
Winter WyvernPanda
Winter Wyvern
Game 2prediction correct18:35
Nigma Galaxy 39%Thunder Awaken 61%
The model gave 61% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 40:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidDreamocel
54% · 93 games47% · 62 games
SvenPakazs
Sven
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainSumaiL
57% · 181 game44% · 98 games
TimbersawSacred
Timbersaw
Necrophos
NecrophosMinD_ContRoL
57% · 85 games53% · 200 games
Ember SpiritDarkMago
Ember Spirit
Rubick
RubickKuroKy
53% · 143 games40% · 109 games
HoodwinkMatthew
Hoodwink
Elder Titan
Elder TitanGH
50% · 52 games43% · 85 games
Winter WyvernPanda
Winter Wyvern
Model check result
Model favoriteThunder Awaken · 73%
Series resultThunder Awaken 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2