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WePlay AniMajor 2021 · BO2
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxyloss 0:2
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 0:2
TNC Predatorwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Puck
Puckoften banned
Miracle- · 14 games
50%
Mars
Marssignature
MinD_ContRoL · 11 games
82%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
GH · 11 games
55%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
MinD_ContRoL · 10 games
60%
Io
Iooften banned
GH · 10 games
50%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
GH · 9 games
89%
Lion
Lionsignature
KuroKy · 9 games
67%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
GH · 8 games
38%

TNC Predator

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
kpii · 12 games
75%
Mirana
Mirana
Tims · 11 games
36%
Tiny
Tiny
Armel · 11 games
45%
Lion
Lionsignature
Tims · 10 games
60%
Puck
Pucksignature
Armel · 8 games
63%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Boomy · 7 games
43%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Armel · 6 games
50%
Mars
Marssignature
kpii · 6 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
398 picks · 219 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
398 picks · 994 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
397 picks · 635 bans
54%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
374 picks · 358 bans
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
345 picks · 191 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
304 picks · 215 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
289 picks · 216 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
278 picks · 375 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 53%
Hero pool strength53% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed39:31
Nigma Galaxy 52%TNC Predator 48%
The model gave 52% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by TNC Predator in 48:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterMiracle-
51% · 137 games59% · 144 games
Wraith KingGabbi
Wraith King
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidiLTW
45% · 81 game47% · 205 games
PuckArmel
Puck
Mars
MarsMinD_ContRoL
48% · 283 games47% · 45 games
ViperBok
Viper
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageGH
37% · 33 games53% · 143 games
Nyx AssassinTims
Nyx Assassin
Enchantress
EnchantressKuroKy
50% · 127 games56% · 124 games
SnapfireBoomy
Snapfire
Game 2prediction missed29:38
Nigma Galaxy 55%TNC Predator 45%
The model gave 55% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by TNC Predator in 42:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Invoker
InvokerMiracle-
60% · 54 games54% · 40 games
MagnusGabbi
Magnus
Ursa
UrsaiLTW
48% · 59 games51% · 85 games
LeshracArmel
Leshrac
Mars
MarsMinD_ContRoL
45% · 174 games43% · 56 games
ViperBok
Viper
Dark Willow
Dark WillowGH
55% · 52 games48% · 97 games
PangolierTims
Pangolier
Disruptor
DisruptorKuroKy
46% · 27 games51% · 88 games
EnchantressBoomy
Enchantress
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 54%
Series resultTNC Predator 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2