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ESL One Malaysia 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxyloss 1:1
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 1:1
TSMloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Tiny
Tinysignature
KuroKy · 13 games
62%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
GH · 12 games
58%
Tusk
Tusk
GH · 11 games
55%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 10 games
30%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Miracle- · 10 games
90%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 9 games
56%
Io
Iosignature
GH · 9 games
67%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
KuroKy · 9 games
33%

TSM

Tiny
Tiny
MoonMeander · 14 games
50%
Bane
Banesignature
DuBu · 12 games
75%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
DuBu · 11 games
82%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
MoonMeander · 11 games
55%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightsignature
Timado · 10 games
90%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
SabeRLight- · 10 games
80%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Timado · 10 games
50%
Puck
Pucksignature
bryle- · 10 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
722 picks · 543 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
511 picks · 1024 bans
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
447 picks · 569 bans
45%
Marci
Marci
426 picks · 757 bans
52%
Snapfire
Snapfire
365 picks · 194 bans
50%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
351 picks · 379 bans
56%
Zeus
Zeus
316 picks · 361 bans
47%
Razor
Razor
309 picks · 614 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 58%
Hero pool strength54% TSM
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total55% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:9
Nigma Galaxy 52%TSM 48%
The model gave 52% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 31:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone Druid
Lone DruidDreamocel
56% · 15 games40% · 76 games
Phantom AssassinTimado
Phantom Assassin
Puck
PuckSumaiL
54% · 303 games52% · 250 games
RazorSabeRLight-
Razor
Death Prophet
Death ProphetMinD_ContRoL
55% · 280 games51% · 351 game
Tinybryle-
Tiny
Enchantress
EnchantressKuroKy
48% · 171 game54% · 126 games
DoomMoonMeander
Doom
Tusk
TuskGH
46% · 116 games44% · 82 games
JakiroDuBu
Jakiro
Game 2prediction missed15:27
Nigma Galaxy 52%TSM 48%
The model gave 52% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by TSM in 33:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone Druid
Lone DruidDreamocel
46% · 12 games50% · 152 games
Templar AssassinTimado
Templar Assassin
Monkey King
Monkey KingSumaiL
50% · 233 games50% · 214 games
Puckbryle-
Puck
Enigma
EnigmaMinD_ContRoL
54% · 57 games45% · 49 games
BrewmasterSabeRLight-
Brewmaster
Enchantress
EnchantressKuroKy
48% · 168 games54% · 164 games
MiranaMoonMeander
Mirana
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinGH
47% · 121 game60% · 12 games
Witch DoctorDuBu
Witch Doctor
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 55%
Accuracy by game1 of 2