?
arrow_backBack to match
OGA Dota PIT EU/CIS Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxyloss 0:2
series probability
28%72%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Tundra Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Luna
Lunaoften banned
iLTW · 9 games
44%
Mars
Marsoften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 7 games
43%
Io
Iooften banned
GH · 5 games
60%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Miracle- · 5 games
20%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
iLTW · 5 games
60%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 5 games
40%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Miracle- · 4 games
50%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
KuroKy · 4 games
25%

Tundra Esports

Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Fata · 14 games
79%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Nine · 13 games
85%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Fata · 13 games
62%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
33 · 13 games
62%
Luna
Lunasignature
Skiter · 12 games
67%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Sneyking · 12 games
75%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Sneyking · 12 games
75%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
Skiter · 11 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
361 picks · 535 bans
49%
Bane
Bane
322 picks · 244 bans
59%
Snapfire
Snapfire
321 picks · 196 bans
47%
Weaver
Weaver
308 picks · 677 bans
55%
Monkey King
Monkey King
262 picks · 754 bans
58%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
247 picks · 402 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
235 picks · 150 bans
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
230 picks · 320 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 50%
Hero pool strength63% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total72% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct4:22
Nigma Galaxy 37%Tundra Esports 63%
The model gave 63% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 21:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kunkka
KunkkaMiracle-
49% · 110 games51% · 93 games
Queen of PainNine
Queen of Pain
Morphling
MorphlingiLTW
44% · 112 games51% · 73 games
Phantom LancerSkiter
Phantom Lancer
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld DestroyerMinD_ContRoL
55% · 60 games51% · 78 games
Dark Seer33
Dark Seer
Rubick
RubickGH
46% · 149 games51% · 211 games
Nyx AssassinSneyking
Nyx Assassin
Abaddon
AbaddonKuroKy
47% · 149 games56% · 125 games
BaneFata
Bane
Game 2prediction correct16:40
Nigma Galaxy 37%Tundra Esports 63%
The model gave 63% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 37:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaiLTW
49% · 173 games49% · 144 games
Timbersaw33
Timbersaw
Sand King
Sand KingMiracle-
56% · 89 games43% · 93 games
Queen of PainNine
Queen of Pain
Jakiro
JakiroMinD_ContRoL
52% · 30 games52% · 139 games
Wraith KingSkiter
Wraith King
Snapfire
SnapfireKuroKy
45% · 183 games47% · 115 games
WeaverSneyking
Weaver
Tusk
TuskGH
52% · 135 games56% · 119 games
BaneFata
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 72%
Series resultTundra Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2