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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxyloss 0:2
series probability
23%77%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Tundra Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Miracle- · 9 games
56%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
GH · 8 games
25%
Bane
Banesignature
KuroKy · 7 games
71%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
GH · 7 games
57%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Miracle- · 7 games
57%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Miracle- · 6 games
50%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Miracle- · 6 games
50%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakeroften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 6 games
17%

Tundra Esports

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Skiter · 16 games
81%
Bane
Banesignature
Fata · 15 games
73%
Io
Iosignature
Sneyking · 13 games
69%
Weaver
Weaversignature
Sneyking · 13 games
62%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Skiter · 13 games
77%
Doom
Doomoften banned
33 · 12 games
58%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Nine · 11 games
82%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
33 · 10 games
70%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
448 picks · 271 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
379 picks · 520 bans
54%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
367 picks · 501 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
352 picks · 473 bans
52%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
289 picks · 456 bans
54%
Kunkka
Kunkka
285 picks · 505 bans
51%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
264 picks · 185 bans
45%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
260 picks · 321 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 67%
Hero pool strength62% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head1 – 5
Model total77% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:29
Nigma Galaxy 33%Tundra Esports 67%
The model gave 67% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 42:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopteriLTW
44% · 171 game63% · 191 game
RazorSkiter
Razor
Leshrac
LeshracMiracle-
52% · 158 games47% · 140 games
Sand King33
Sand King
Tidehunter
TidehunterMinD_ContRoL
47% · 270 games48% · 209 games
PangolierNine
Pangolier
Oracle
OracleKuroKy
42% · 68 games46% · 61 game
Keeper of the LightSaksa
Keeper of the Light
Io
IoGH
53% · 226 games55% · 292 games
BaneSneyking
Bane
Game 2prediction correct12:37
Nigma Galaxy 33%Tundra Esports 67%
The model gave 67% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 29:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassiniLTW
38% · 89 games43% · 43 games
Chaos KnightSkiter
Chaos Knight
Void Spirit
Void SpiritMiracle-
39% · 176 games64% · 25 games
Necrophos33
Necrophos
Death Prophet
Death ProphetMinD_ContRoL
48% · 149 games53% · 205 games
PangolierNine
Pangolier
Enchantress
EnchantressKuroKy
50% · 65 games57% · 78 games
Keeper of the LightSaksa
Keeper of the Light
Tusk
TuskGH
46% · 65 games61% · 193 games
WeaverSneyking
Weaver
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 77%
Series resultTundra Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2