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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Европа 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxyloss 1:2
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 1:2
ViKin.ggwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Bloodseeker
Bloodseeker
MinD_ContRoL · 5 games
80%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
GH · 3 games
67%
Puck
Puckoften banned
w33 · 3 games
33%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
w33 · 2 games
100%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
KuroKy · 2 games
50%
Io
Iooften banned
GH · 2 games
50%
Phantom Lancer
Phantom Lanceroften banned
Miracle- · 2 games
50%
Slark
Slarkoften banned
Miracle- · 2 games
100%

ViKin.gg

Oracle
Oracleoften banned
Seleri · 4 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Tobi · 3 games
67%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunteroften banned
Aramis · 3 games
67%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
BOOM · 2 games
50%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Seleri · 2 games
50%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Aramis · 2 games
0%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
Tobi · 2 games
0%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
BOOM · 2 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
187 picks · 419 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
174 picks · 319 bans
47%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
163 picks · 230 bans
57%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
162 picks · 133 bans
49%
Phoenix
Phoenix
139 picks · 158 bans
59%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
130 picks · 215 bans
54%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
123 picks · 418 bans
61%
Rubick
Rubick
119 picks · 67 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 50%
Hero pool strength54% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:40
Nigma Galaxy 54%ViKin.gg 46%
The model gave 54% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by ViKin.gg in 55:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaMiracle-
34% · 21 game49% · 10 games
LeshracBOOM
Leshrac
Batrider
Batriderw33
50% · 50 gameslittle data
LifestealerShad
Lifestealer
Phoenix
PhoenixGH
54% · 36 games54% · 18 games
EarthshakerAramis
Earthshaker
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerMinD_ContRoL
40% · 14 games53% · 64 games
PuckTobi
Puck
Lion
LionKuroKy
60% · 13 games49% · 42 games
OracleSeleri
Oracle
Game 2prediction correct34:13
Nigma Galaxy 54%ViKin.gg 46%
The model gave 54% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 27:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingMiracle-
44% · 18 gameslittle data
LifestealerShad
Lifestealer
Puck
Puckw33
47% · 29 games50% · 20 games
InvokerBOOM
Invoker
Enigma
EnigmaMinD_ContRoL
29% · 6 games45% · 30 games
Death ProphetTobi
Death Prophet
Phoenix
PhoenixGH
54% · 25 games55% · 18 games
EarthshakerAramis
Earthshaker
Clockwerk
ClockwerkKuroKy
59% · 10 games60% · 20 games
BrewmasterSeleri
Brewmaster
Game 3prediction missed16:37
Nigma Galaxy 54%ViKin.gg 46%
The model gave 54% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by ViKin.gg in 43:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingMiracle-
52% · 29 games54% · 47 games
Wraith KingShad
Wraith King
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetKuroKy
60% · 15 games54% · 23 games
Dragon KnightBOOM
Dragon Knight
Puck
Puckw33
46% · 48 gameslittle data
RazorTobi
Razor
Enigma
EnigmaMinD_ContRoL
33% · 5 games57% · 15 games
EarthshakerAramis
Earthshaker
Clockwerk
ClockwerkGH
56% · 18 games35% · 30 games
GrimstrokeSeleri
Grimstroke
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 59%
Series resultViKin.gg 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3