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PGL Wallachia Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxywin 2:1
series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Virtus.proloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
No!ob · 33 games
76%
Tusk
Tusksignature
OmaR · 31 game
61%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
GH · 26 games
62%
Magnus
Magnussignature
SumaiL · 23 games
74%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
No!ob · 22 games
55%
Io
Iooften banned
GH · 22 games
55%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Ghost · 22 games
55%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
OmaR · 21 game
38%

Virtus.pro

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Lorenof · 23 games
61%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 22 games
55%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Daxak · 21 game
57%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Daxak · 17 games
59%
Batrider
Batridersignature
prblms · 15 games
73%
Enchantress
Enchantress
Rein · 15 games
47%
Silencer
Silencersignature
Rein · 15 games
60%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Nande · 15 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
563 picks · 638 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
489 picks · 249 bans
53%
Jakiro
Jakiro
469 picks · 419 bans
48%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
410 picks · 856 bans
47%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
403 picks · 454 bans
56%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
390 picks · 565 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
386 picks · 337 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
360 picks · 531 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)49% vs 57%
Hero pool strength51% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head3 – 2
Model total67% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:4
Nigma Galaxy 58%Virtus.pro 42%
The model gave 58% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 38:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendGhost
43% · 75 games56% · 40 games
LifestealerV-Tune
Lifestealer
Earthshaker
EarthshakerSumaiL
47% · 130 games57% · 75 games
TidehunterDaxak
Tidehunter
Undying
UndyingNo!ob
50% · 54 games55% · 160 games
MagnusLorenof
Magnus
Naga Siren
Naga SirenGH
55% · 71 game54% · 133 games
JakiroAntares
Jakiro
Dark Willow
Dark WillowOmaR
41% · 125 games42% · 47 games
SilencerRein
Silencer
Game 2prediction missed17:38
Nigma Galaxy 61%Virtus.pro 39%
The model gave 61% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 57:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Arc Warden
Arc WardenSumaiL
little data47% · 112 games
Queen of PainLorenof
Queen of Pain
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeGhost
52% · 250 games52% · 136 games
AbaddonV-Tune
Abaddon
Earthshaker
EarthshakerNo!ob
52% · 98 games44% · 134 games
Nature's ProphetDaxak
Nature's Prophet
Batrider
BatriderOmaR
52% · 276 games41% · 82 games
SilencerRein
Silencer
Elder Titan
Elder TitanGH
57% · 120 games50% · 280 games
ClockwerkAntares
Clockwerk
Game 3prediction correct23:11
Nigma Galaxy 61%Virtus.pro 39%
The model gave 61% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 32:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaGhost
47% · 152 games49% · 37 games
Anti-MageV-Tune
Anti-Mage
Beastmaster
BeastmasterNo!ob
53% · 253 games49% · 207 games
Shadow FiendLorenof
Shadow Fiend
Magnus
MagnusSumaiL
60% · 167 games51% · 211 games
Nature's ProphetDaxak
Nature's Prophet
Batrider
BatriderOmaR
53% · 237 games52% · 529 games
ClockwerkAntares
Clockwerk
Tusk
TuskGH
50% · 304 games38% · 129 games
SilencerRein
Silencer
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 67%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3