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DreamLeague Season 28. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxyloss 0:2
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Virtus.prowin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Mars
Marsoften banned
No!ob · 24 games
46%
Muerta
Muerta
SumaiL · 23 games
48%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
SumaiL · 18 games
50%
Bane
Banesignature
OmaR · 17 games
76%
Puck
Puckoften banned
SumaiL · 17 games
53%
Pugna
Pugna
GH · 17 games
41%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OmaR · 16 games
56%
Tusk
Tusk
GH · 16 games
56%

Virtus.pro

Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Antares · 27 games
63%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Abed · 19 games
53%
Puck
Pucksignature
Abed · 18 games
72%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Timado · 16 games
50%
Warlock
Warlock
Fly · 16 games
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Abed · 15 games
47%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Fly · 15 games
60%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Timado · 14 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
565 picks · 717 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
509 picks · 352 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
486 picks · 660 bans
49%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
451 picks · 546 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
404 picks · 137 bans
49%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
391 picks · 185 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
376 picks · 518 bans
48%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
373 picks · 527 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 35%
Hero pool strength53% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head4 – 2
Model total64% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed22:39
Nigma Galaxy 58%Virtus.pro 42%
The model gave 58% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 43:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Void Spirit
Void SpiritSumaiL
49% · 176 games51% · 314 games
AbaddonTimado
Abaddon
Clinkz
Clinkzrincyq
58% · 32 games51% · 373 games
Storm SpiritAbed
Storm Spirit
Pangolier
PangolierNo!ob
48% · 554 games49% · 53 games
BrewmasterSabeRLight-
Brewmaster
Hoodwink
HoodwinkOmaR
50% · 249 games44% · 306 games
WarlockFly
Warlock
Batrider
BatriderGH
56% · 442 games48% · 407 games
TinyHellscream
Tiny
Game 2prediction missed15:24
Nigma Galaxy 56%Virtus.pro 44%
The model gave 56% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 27:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
Slarkrincyq
50% · 59 games54% · 149 games
Shadow FiendTimado
Shadow Fiend
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainSumaiL
44% · 252 games46% · 224 games
MarsSabeRLight-
Mars
Tiny
TinyNo!ob
49% · 266 games57% · 162 games
Void SpiritAbed
Void Spirit
Dazzle
DazzleGH
47% · 96 games55% · 317 games
Shadow ShamanHellscream
Shadow Shaman
Dark Willow
Dark WillowOmaR
45% · 196 games57% · 17 games
Treant ProtectorFly
Treant Protector
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 64%
Series resultVirtus.pro 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2