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Elite League. Закрытые квалификации · BO5
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxywin 3:0
series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 3:0
Winter Bearloss 0:3
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Fbz · 9 games
56%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
KuroKy · 7 games
57%
Arc Warden
Arc Wardenoften banned
Miracle- · 6 games
50%
Batrider
Batridersignature
rmN- · 6 games
67%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Ghost · 6 games
50%
Tiny
Tiny
SumaiL · 6 games
50%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Ghost · 5 games
40%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Matthew · 5 games
60%

Winter Bear

Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Stoic · 13 games
38%
Rubick
Rubick
Jeezy · 9 games
22%
Lion
Lionsignature
Jeezy · 8 games
63%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Stoic · 6 games
50%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Jeezy · 5 games
60%
Tiny
Tiny
Jeezy · 5 games
40%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Stoic · 4 games
75%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Lowskill · 4 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
382 picks · 353 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
355 picks · 560 bans
57%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
345 picks · 337 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
341 picks · 515 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
327 picks · 258 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
319 picks · 625 bans
58%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
310 picks · 185 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
297 picks · 289 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 56%
Hero pool strength53% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head3 – 2
Model total68% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:18
Nigma Galaxy 62%Winter Bear 38%
The model gave 62% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 35:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterMiracle-
51% · 62 games43% · 344 games
RubickJeezy
Rubick
Tidehunter
TidehunterFbz
51% · 92 games52% · 103 games
GrimstrokeLodine
Grimstroke
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritSumaiL
51% · 131 game
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterMatthew
54% · 43 games
Batrider
BatriderKuroKy
58% · 119 games
Game 2prediction correct29:14
Nigma Galaxy 58%Winter Bear 42%
The model gave 58% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 38:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaMiracle-
45% · 73 games53% · 260 games
LionJeezy
Lion
Arc Warden
Arc WardenSumaiL
42% · 21 game51% · 202 games
Crystal MaidenLodine
Crystal Maiden
Timbersaw
TimbersawFbz
50% · 97 games
Enchantress
EnchantressKuroKy
51% · 138 games
Techies
TechiesMatthew
51% · 133 games
Game 3prediction correct39:12
Nigma Galaxy 60%Winter Bear 40%
The model gave 60% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 38:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenMiracle-
46% · 77 games51% · 298 games
TechiesJeezy
Techies
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritSumaiL
54% · 129 games51% · 216 games
Nature's ProphetLodine
Nature's Prophet
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerFbz
49% · 87 games
Hoodwink
HoodwinkMatthew
46% · 95 games
Mirana
MiranaKuroKy
50% · 126 games
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 68%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 3:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3