?
arrow_backBack to match
PGL Wallachia Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxyloss 1:2
series probability
89%11%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Yellow Submarinewin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
GH · 26 games
42%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
GH · 25 games
72%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
OmaR · 23 games
43%
Mars
Marssignature
No!ob · 22 games
64%
Sniper
Snipersignature
SumaiL · 21 game
76%
Magnus
Magnussignature
SumaiL · 20 games
60%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
No!ob · 19 games
84%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
OmaR · 17 games
65%

Yellow Submarine

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
mrls · 9 games
44%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
re1bl · 9 games
56%
Muerta
Muertasignature
mrls · 8 games
63%
Lion
Lion
mrls · 6 games
33%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Htrd · 5 games
80%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
ififall · 5 games
40%
Lich
Lich
Htrd · 5 games
20%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
nesfeer · 5 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
513 picks · 728 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
481 picks · 473 bans
53%
Phoenix
Phoenix
478 picks · 777 bans
53%
Muerta
Muerta
447 picks · 366 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
421 picks · 519 bans
49%
Magnus
Magnus
420 picks · 1033 bans
57%
Bristleback
Bristleback
408 picks · 927 bans
59%
Pangolier
Pangolier
392 picks · 536 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 33%
Hero pool strength58% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total89% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:12
Nigma Galaxy 76%Yellow Submarine 24%
The model gave 76% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 31:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightSumaiL
52% · 347 games47% · 74 games
Nature's Prophetnesfeer
Nature's Prophet
Bristleback
BristlebackNo!ob
58% · 211 games39% · 75 games
Queen of Painre1bl
Queen of Pain
Ursa
UrsaGhost
58% · 105 games50% · 204 games
Doommangekyou
Doom
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterOmaR
50% · 58 games43% · 222 games
Timbersawififall
Timbersaw
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernGH
50% · 28 games48% · 174 games
Dark Willowmrls
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction missed16:34
Nigma Galaxy 74%Yellow Submarine 26%
The model gave 74% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 39:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinGhost
53% · 64 games51% · 81 game
Nature's Prophetre1bl
Nature's Prophet
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightSumaiL
45% · 155 games48% · 189 games
Ursanesfeer
Ursa
Tidehunter
TidehunterNo!ob
53% · 72 games53% · 56 games
Visagemangekyou
Visage
Phoenix
PhoenixGH
48% · 202 games52% · 81 game
Bounty Huntermrls
Bounty Hunter
Weaver
WeaverOmaR
51% · 104 games49% · 190 games
Jakiroififall
Jakiro
Game 3prediction missed33:35
Nigma Galaxy 76%Yellow Submarine 24%
The model gave 76% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 1:01:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinGhost
51% · 144 games49% · 205 games
Dragon Knightnesfeer
Dragon Knight
Sniper
SniperSumaiL
50% · 161 game47% · 152 games
Beastmastermangekyou
Beastmaster
Mars
MarsNo!ob
44% · 190 games55% · 92 games
Storm Spiritre1bl
Storm Spirit
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernGH
49% · 29 games57% · 6 games
Ancient Apparitionififall
Ancient Apparition
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterOmaR
52% · 69 games50% · 138 games
Dark Willowmrls
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 89%
Series resultYellow Submarine 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3