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DreamLeague Division 2 Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxywin 2:1
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Zero Tenacityloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OmaR · 25 games
52%
Muerta
Muerta
SumaiL · 23 games
48%
Mars
Marsoften banned
No!ob · 22 games
32%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
SumaiL · 20 games
55%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
GH · 20 games
30%
Dazzle
Dazzle
GH · 19 games
58%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
SumaiL · 18 games
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
SumaiL · 17 games
53%

Zero Tenacity

Disruptor
Disruptor
Se · 40 games
57%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Worick · 40 games
53%
Warlock
Warlock
MoOz · 36 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Nefrit · 35 games
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Worick · 34 games
65%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
MoOz · 34 games
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Nefrit · 33 games
67%
Bristleback
Bristleback
Nefrit · 32 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
605 picks · 935 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
515 picks · 416 bans
47%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
471 picks · 620 bans
57%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
430 picks · 571 bans
49%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
427 picks · 942 bans
52%
Warlock
Warlock
401 picks · 248 bans
47%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
396 picks · 656 bans
59%
Tiny
Tiny
395 picks · 444 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 60%
Hero pool strength56% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total55% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:11
Nigma Galaxy 53%Zero Tenacity 47%
The model gave 53% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 52:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendrincyq
57% · 261 game50% · 204 games
UrsaKami
Ursa
Underlord
UnderlordNo!ob
51% · 208 games50% · 451 game
PuckWorick
Puck
Void Spirit
Void SpiritSumaiL
51% · 388 games47% · 267 games
BeastmasterNefrit
Beastmaster
Naga Siren
Naga SirenGH
60% · 203 games44% · 330 games
WarlockMoOz
Warlock
Ringmaster
RingmasterOmaR
50% · 405 games40% · 213 games
Dark WillowdEsire
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction missed14:29
Nigma Galaxy 52%Zero Tenacity 48%
The model gave 52% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 43:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritSumaiL
50% · 486 games55% · 88 games
Naga SirenKami
Naga Siren
Lycan
LycanNo!ob
58% · 89 games47% · 284 games
Ember SpiritWorick
Ember Spirit
Slark
Slarkrincyq
49% · 96 games51% · 39 games
LargoNefrit
Largo
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionGH
44% · 189 games42% · 169 games
HoodwinkdEsire
Hoodwink
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinOmaR
60% · 75 games49% · 355 games
JakiroMoOz
Jakiro
Game 3prediction correct37:14
Nigma Galaxy 52%Zero Tenacity 48%
The model gave 52% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 51:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Meepo
Meeporincyq
61% · 14 games54% · 239 games
BristlebackNefrit
Bristleback
Underlord
UnderlordNo!ob
48% · 204 games55% · 75 games
ClinkzKami
Clinkz
Razor
RazorSumaiL
51% · 77 games49% · 305 games
BeastmasterWorick
Beastmaster
Jakiro
JakiroGH
47% · 582 games51% · 231 game
HoodwinkdEsire
Hoodwink
Ringmaster
RingmasterOmaR
51% · 404 games45% · 431 game
TuskMoOz
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 55%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3