Elite League. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Ninja Penguinswin 2:1series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:1
JustBetterloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Ninja Penguins
Vengeful Spirit
MiLAN · 11 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Copy · 10 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
MiLAN · 9 games
Weaversignature
Lowskill · 9 games
Lunaoften banned
Lowskill · 7 games
Magnussignature
Corrupted · 7 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Corrupted · 6 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Copy · 6 games
JustBetter
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
383 picks · 349 bans
Vengeful Spirit
335 picks · 326 bans
Centaur Warrunner
325 picks · 509 bans
Mars
310 picks · 442 bans
Techies
295 picks · 221 bans
Hoodwink
285 picks · 162 bans
Pangolier
280 picks · 421 bans
Batrider
277 picks · 517 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)66% vs 60%
Hero pool strength55% Ninja Penguins
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% Ninja Penguins
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:51
Ninja Penguins 59%JustBetter 41%
The model gave 59% on Ninja Penguins — the game was taken by JustBetter in 41:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirittoshiyb
MedusaFocus
KunkkaDaxak
Void SpiritPanda
TerrorbladeCoblackk
DoomSkyLark
GyrocopterMiLAN
BatriderAstral
52% · 116 games
Crystal MaidenSsaSpartan
Game 2prediction correct27:5
Ninja Penguins 61%JustBetter 39%
The model gave 61% on Ninja Penguins — the game was taken by Ninja Penguins in 38:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon KnightDaxak
LunaFocus
Monkey KingCoblackk
Centaur WarrunnerSkyLark
Pangoliertoshiyb
ViperPanda
Vengeful SpiritMiLAN
TechiesAstral
46% · 192 games
UndyingSsaSpartan
Game 3prediction correct30:11
Ninja Penguins 62%JustBetter 38%
The model gave 62% on Ninja Penguins — the game was taken by Ninja Penguins in 38:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LunaCoblackk
Templar AssassinPanda
EnigmaDaxak
TimbersawSkyLark
Pangoliertoshiyb
BloodseekerFocus
GyrocopterMiLAN
HoodwinkAstral
51% · 149 games
Vengeful SpiritSsaSpartan
Model check result
Model favoriteNinja Penguins · 70%
Series resultNinja Penguins 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3