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DreamLeague Season 22. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Ninja Penguinsloss 0:2
series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 0:2
KZ TEAMwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Ninja Penguins

Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Copy · 3 games
33%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Fayde · 2 games
50%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Lowskill · 2 games
50%
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
Copy · 2 games
50%
Silencer
Silencer
MiLAN · 2 games
100%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
MiLAN · 2 games
50%
Alchemist
Alchemist
Lowskill · 1 game
0%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Fayde · 1 game
100%

KZ TEAM

Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
SsaSpartan · 17 games
59%
Rubick
Rubick
Pablo · 16 games
38%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Otaker · 15 games
47%
Muerta
Muertaoften banned
Astral · 15 games
53%
Oracle
Oracle
SsaSpartan · 13 games
54%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
SsaSpartan · 13 games
46%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
SsaSpartan · 11 games
64%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
W1sh- · 11 games
73%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
270 picks · 446 bans
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
248 picks · 390 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
243 picks · 339 bans
53%
Muerta
Muerta
225 picks · 312 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
216 picks · 206 bans
47%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
215 picks · 102 bans
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
200 picks · 497 bans
52%
Kunkka
Kunkka
193 picks · 520 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 61%
Hero pool strength51% KZ TEAM
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total60% KZ TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:31
Ninja Penguins 42%KZ TEAM 58%
The model gave 58% on KZ TEAM — the game was taken by KZ TEAM in 47:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingLowskill
44% · 202 games52% · 93 games
UrsaOtaker
Ursa
Visage
VisageFayde
60% · 66 games53% · 83 games
Queen of PainSupream^
Queen of Pain
Primal Beast
Primal BeastCopy
47% · 235 games54% · 130 games
MagnusSkyLark
Magnus
Phoenix
PhoenixMiLAN
42% · 149 games55% · 220 games
ClockwerkAstral
Clockwerk
50% · 126 games
Crystal MaidenSsaSpartan
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction correct21:35
Ninja Penguins 43%KZ TEAM 57%
The model gave 57% on KZ TEAM — the game was taken by KZ TEAM in 41:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistLowskill
61% · 100 games41% · 56 games
UrsaOtaker
Ursa
Void Spirit
Void SpiritCopy
50% · 91 game54% · 71 game
InvokerSupream^
Invoker
Batrider
BatriderFayde
52% · 158 games44% · 74 games
Centaur WarrunnerSkyLark
Centaur Warrunner
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritMiLAN
52% · 104 games45% · 146 games
EnchantressSsaSpartan
Enchantress
45% · 106 games
PhoenixAstral
Phoenix
Model check result
Model favoriteKZ TEAM · 60%
Series resultKZ TEAM 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2