BetBoom Dacha Dubai 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Ninja Penguinswin 2:1series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:1
MarsBet Teamloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Ninja Penguins
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Fayde · 1 game
Naga Sirenoften banned
Lowskill · 1 game
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
Copy · 1 game
Silencer
MiLAN · 1 game
MarsBet Team
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Mr. Luck · 15 games
Dark Willow
LeBronDota · 12 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
Otaker · 10 games
Gyrocopter
Mitch · 9 games
Brewmasteroften banned
Mr. Luck · 8 games
Invokersignature
Jeezy · 8 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
LeBronDota · 8 games
Wraith Kingsignature
Mr. Luck · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
247 picks · 419 bans
Muerta
225 picks · 317 bans
Phoenix
213 picks · 324 bans
Tusk
197 picks · 181 bans
Dark Willow
195 picks · 97 bans
Centaur Warrunner
194 picks · 266 bans
Treant Protector
185 picks · 358 bans
Kunkka
177 picks · 504 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 47%
Hero pool strength58% Ninja Penguins
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Ninja Penguins
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Ninja Penguins 51%MarsBet Team 49%
The model gave 51% on Ninja Penguins — the game was taken by MarsBet Team.
Game 2prediction correct33:8
Ninja Penguins 53%MarsBet Team 47%
The model gave 53% on Ninja Penguins — the game was taken by Ninja Penguins in 36:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MeepoCopy
Templar AssassinLukas
PudgeLowskill
Dragon KnightMr. Luck
DoomFayde
Outworld DestroyerW1sh-
WeaverMiLAN
EnchantressLeBronDota
47% · 47 games
LionBignum
Game 3prediction correct
Ninja Penguins 51%MarsBet Team 49%
The model gave 51% on Ninja Penguins — the game was taken by Ninja Penguins.
Model check result
Model favoriteNinja Penguins · 51%
Series resultNinja Penguins 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3