?
arrow_backBack to match
Elite League. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Ninja Penguinsloss 0:2
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 0:2
MOUZwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Ninja Penguins

Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
MiLAN · 12 games
42%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Copy · 10 games
40%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
MiLAN · 9 games
67%
Weaver
Weaversignature
Lowskill · 9 games
78%
Luna
Lunasignature
Lowskill · 8 games
63%
Magnus
Magnussignature
Corrupted · 7 games
71%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Lowskill · 7 games
71%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Corrupted · 6 games
100%

MOUZ

Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
Force · 2 games
100%
Sven
Sven
Ulnit · 2 games
100%
Tiny
Tiny
NARMAN · 2 games
100%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Ulnit · 1 game
100%
Bane
Bane
bengan · 1 game
100%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
bengan · 1 game
100%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
NARMAN · 1 game
100%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
NARMAN · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
383 picks · 350 bans
52%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
338 picks · 330 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
320 picks · 519 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
312 picks · 457 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
301 picks · 232 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
292 picks · 170 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
288 picks · 530 bans
57%
Pangolier
Pangolier
282 picks · 432 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 67%
Hero pool strength53% MOUZ
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% Ninja Penguins
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed2:27
Ninja Penguins 58%MOUZ 42%
The model gave 58% on Ninja Penguins — the game was taken by MOUZ in 27:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenCoblackk
56% · 143 games45% · 66 games
MedusaUlnit
Medusa
Enigma
EnigmaDaxak
52% · 97 games50% · 55 games
BroodmotherForce
Broodmother
Invoker
Invokertoshiyb
49% · 73 games53% · 73 games
LeshracSupream^
Leshrac
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterMiLAN
49% · 88 games48% · 89 games
Shadow Demonbengan
Shadow Demon
45% · 118 games
TinyNARMAN
Tiny
Game 2prediction missed4:38
Ninja Penguins 57%MOUZ 43%
The model gave 57% on Ninja Penguins — the game was taken by MOUZ in 30:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawDaxak
43% · 118 games55% · 61 game
GyrocopterUlnit
Gyrocopter
Arc Warden
Arc WardenCoblackk
55% · 20 games54% · 113 games
PuckSupream^
Puck
Pangolier
Pangoliertoshiyb
46% · 222 games50% · 6 games
OmniknightForce
Omniknight
Elder Titan
Elder TitanMiLAN
53% · 54 games49% · 110 games
TerrorbladeNARMAN
Terrorblade
53% · 124 games
Shadow Demonbengan
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteNinja Penguins · 64%
Series resultMOUZ 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2