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Elite League. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Ninja Penguinsloss 1:2
series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Rest Farmerswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Ninja Penguins

Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
MiLAN · 12 games
42%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Copy · 11 games
45%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
MiLAN · 10 games
70%
Weaver
Weaversignature
Lowskill · 9 games
78%
Luna
Lunasignature
Lowskill · 8 games
63%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Corrupted · 7 games
100%
Magnus
Magnussignature
Corrupted · 7 games
71%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Lowskill · 7 games
71%

Rest Farmers

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
381 picks · 352 bans
52%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
337 picks · 334 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
318 picks · 524 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
315 picks · 464 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
306 picks · 236 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
294 picks · 175 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
292 picks · 553 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
280 picks · 243 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)66% vs 67%
Hero pool strength57% Ninja Penguins
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% Ninja Penguins
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed14:31
Ninja Penguins 67%Rest Farmers 33%
The model gave 67% on Ninja Penguins — the game was taken by Rest Farmers in 38:20.
Game 2prediction correct37:13
Ninja Penguins 67%Rest Farmers 33%
The model gave 67% on Ninja Penguins — the game was taken by Ninja Penguins in 51:10.
Game 3prediction missed14:38
Ninja Penguins 67%Rest Farmers 33%
The model gave 67% on Ninja Penguins — the game was taken by Rest Farmers in 38:17.
Model check result
Model favoriteNinja Penguins · 67%
Series resultRest Farmers 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3