Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Европа 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
No Bounty Hunterloss 0:2series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Hellbear Smasherswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
No Bounty Hunter
Puckoften banned
ntakii · 3 games
Earth Spirit
dEsire · 2 games
Undyingoften banned
Flash · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
ntakii · 1 game
Beastmasteroften banned
BliNcc · 1 game
Dark Seeroften banned
BliNcc · 1 game
Earthshakeroften banned
dEsire · 1 game
Enigmaoften banned
BliNcc · 1 game
Hellbear Smashers
Pucksignature
Stormstormer · 6 games
Earthshakeroften banned
Gilgir · 3 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Ace · 3 games
Oracle
tOfu · 3 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
Ace · 3 games
Batrideroften banned
Stormstormer · 2 games
Earth Spirit
Gilgir · 2 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Ace · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
73 picks · 156 bans
Puck
71 picks · 176 bans
Earth Spirit
62 picks · 52 bans
Void Spirit
55 picks · 107 bans
Rubick
48 picks · 28 bans
Undying
47 picks · 70 bans
Monkey King
46 picks · 108 bans
Phoenix
46 picks · 65 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 44%
Hero pool strength54% No Bounty Hunter
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% No Bounty Hunter
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:42
No Bounty Hunter 49%Hellbear Smashers 51%
The model gave 51% on Hellbear Smashers — the game was taken by Hellbear Smashers in 34:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UrsakAAN
RikiAce
Batriderntakii
PuckStormstormer
TidehunterBliNcc
VenomancerMISERY
RubickFervian
EarthshakerGilgir
Keeper of the LightFlash
Vengeful SpirittOfu
Game 2prediction missed23:36
No Bounty Hunter 55%Hellbear Smashers 45%
The model gave 55% on No Bounty Hunter — the game was taken by Hellbear Smashers in 41:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LycankAAN
Monkey KingAce
Queen of Painntakii
WindrangerStormstormer
ViperBliNcc
TidehunterMISERY
Nyx AssassinFervian
Shadow ShamanGilgir
UndyingFlash
Winter WyverntOfu
Model check result
Model favoriteNo Bounty Hunter · 52%
Series resultHellbear Smashers 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 2