Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 15 · BO3
result vs prediction
No Bounty Hunterloss 0:2series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 0:2
HFwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
No Bounty Hunter
Dazzle
Flash · 8 games
Puckoften banned
Adzantick · 5 games
Linaoften banned
Stojkov · 4 games
Lycanoften banned
kAAN · 4 games
Viperoften banned
Shad · 4 games
Chaos Knightoften banned
kAAN · 3 games
Doomoften banned
kAAN · 3 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Adzantick · 3 games
HF
Sand Kingsignature
Cloud · 16 games
Miranasignature
ArrOw · 15 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Cloud · 13 games
Pucksignature
hAze · 13 games
Kunkkaoften banned
TA2000 · 12 games
Shadow Shaman
Kaori · 12 games
Tiny
TA2000 · 12 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Cloud · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
668 picks · 520 bans
Marci
470 picks · 715 bans
Dawnbreaker
451 picks · 616 bans
Puck
440 picks · 903 bans
Winter Wyvern
343 picks · 416 bans
Zeus
297 picks · 390 bans
Razor
280 picks · 505 bans
Death Prophet
279 picks · 462 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 39%
Hero pool strength52% HF
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total51% HF
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:40
No Bounty Hunter 49%HF 51%
The model gave 51% on HF — the game was taken by HF in 31:39.
Game 2prediction correct53:15
No Bounty Hunter 49%HF 51%
The model gave 51% on HF — the game was taken by HF in 34:46.
Model check result
Model favoriteHF · 51%
Series resultHF 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2