Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
No Bounty Hunterloss 1:2series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Into The Breachwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
No Bounty Hunter
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Flash · 2 games
Grimstroke
Nikolica · 2 games
Puckoften banned
ntakii · 2 games
Chaos Knight
kAAN · 1 game
Dark Seeroften banned
BliNcc · 1 game
Dragon Knight
ntakii · 1 game
Earth Spirit
NARMAN · 1 game
Gyrocopteroften banned
Lowskill · 1 game
Into The Breach
Phoenixsignature
Peksu · 10 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
Charlie · 9 games
Snapfiresignature
Era · 9 games
Lion
Era · 8 games
Medusasignature
Charlie · 8 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Charlie · 7 games
Abaddonsignature
Peksu · 6 games
Linasignature
Era · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
320 picks · 447 bans
Bane
274 picks · 209 bans
Monkey King
273 picks · 685 bans
Tidehunter
262 picks · 397 bans
Snapfire
255 picks · 139 bans
Weaver
247 picks · 541 bans
Lion
211 picks · 97 bans
Void Spirit
208 picks · 240 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 40%
Hero pool strength63% Into The Breach
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total63% Into The Breach
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:8
No Bounty Hunter 37%Into The Breach 63%
The model gave 63% on Into The Breach — the game was taken by Into The Breach in 31:39.
Game 2prediction missed35:38
No Bounty Hunter 37%Into The Breach 63%
The model gave 63% on Into The Breach — the game was taken by No Bounty Hunter in 47:40.
Game 3prediction correct21:48
No Bounty Hunter 37%Into The Breach 63%
The model gave 63% on Into The Breach — the game was taken by Into The Breach in 44:09.
Model check result
Model favoriteInto The Breach · 63%
Series resultInto The Breach 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3