ESL One Birmingham 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
No Bounty Hunterloss 0:1series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 0:1
TiltedBoyswin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
No Bounty Hunter
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ezekiel · 2 games
Luna
kAAN · 2 games
Alchemist
kAAN · 1 game
Anti-Mageoften banned
kAAN · 1 game
Lycanoften banned
kAAN · 1 game
Medusaoften banned
kAAN · 1 game
Monkey Kingoften banned
kAAN · 1 game
Puckoften banned
high_shaggy · 1 game
TiltedBoys
Hoodwink
bgod · 2 games
Lion
bgod · 2 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
FrancisLee · 2 games
Dark Willow
monkeys-forever · 1 game
Death Prophetoften banned
monkeys-forever · 1 game
Lycanoften banned
monkeys-forever · 1 game
Snapfire
FrancisLee · 1 game
Techies
bgod · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
310 picks · 454 bans
Phoenix
278 picks · 413 bans
Grimstroke
265 picks · 445 bans
Lion
240 picks · 218 bans
Vengeful Spirit
238 picks · 130 bans
Nature's Prophet
231 picks · 666 bans
Tusk
230 picks · 216 bans
Pangolier
228 picks · 320 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% No Bounty Hunter
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% TiltedBoys
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
No Bounty Hunter 38%TiltedBoys 62%
The model gave 62% on TiltedBoys — the game was taken by TiltedBoys.
Model check result
Model favoriteTiltedBoys · 62%
Series resultTiltedBoys 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1